Russians grapple with war in Ukraine but remain hesitant to oppose Putin

Ordinary Russians do not understand what the war in Ukraine is about or why they have to sacrifice their sons for it. At the same time, they are not ready to rebel against Vladimir Putin's government, according to research by Russian sociologists from the Public Sociology Laboratory. Researchers lived in the provinces for four months and interviewed ordinary Russians.

"It's the United States killing civilians! They're just killing civilians and blaming Russia for everything! And it's not true, damn it!" - Mrs. Lyudmila, a resident of Sverdlovsk Region, got upset, repeating Kremlin propaganda. Before her outburst of emotions, the Russian sociologist heard from Lyudmila that she was against the war. She complained that "the authorities are sending children to fight in a neighboring country," and she does not understand "what they (the authorities) want to achieve from all this."

Another respondent, a clergyman referred to as "Father Valentin," responded to the researcher's question about the victims of the shelling of the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv by saying, "We are not to blame," but rather "the devil who started the war." - "We do not kill civilians," he insisted.

Meanwhile, Vitya, a car mechanic from a small town in the Sverdlovsk Region, initially confided: "Every war is for nothing! Beggars appear without a hand or a leg! War is money laundering, scams, and all that!" After being asked whether the conflict should end, he changed his tone. - "Well, those at the top know best. Initially, there was talk that the Americans were to take over Ukrainian territory and place their missiles there," he said, repeating the Kremlin's propaganda.

Many Russians increasingly criticize the war in Ukraine and do not understand why it is being conducted. At the same time, they are not ready to admit that the invasion of Ukraine was a mistake. Conditions for a political protest have not yet emerged in Russia - these are the conclusions of the research by Russian sociologists from the Public Sociology Laboratory (described, among others, by the independent Russian service Verstka).

PS Lab researchers explain on Facebook that "the notion of Russians justifying the war as soulless and mindless zombie-like people under Kremlin propaganda is a stereotype. It hinders more than helps to understand their attitude," reads a commentary on the research.

According to them, the Russian soul is more convoluted than it seems. A significant group of Russians believes that "the war harms Russia, but since it has already happened, the country cannot lose." The study describes such people as "non-opponents," meaning those who justify the war but are not its fervent supporters.

- This confirms that most Russians are unable to criticize the war openly and even support some of its goals - commented for WP, Professor Krzysztof Żęgota from the Institute of Political Science at the University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn. He specializes in Russian security policy.

- Interestingly, the study highlights the existence of so-called "non-opponents" of the war, who may not support acts of war law violations and war brutalization but generally support the plans for Ukraine's political subjugation to Russia. This confirms the existing imperialism in the Russian soul and the significant opportunism of a part of Russian society - added WP's interlocutor.

The study authors assess that "overload" caused by a large number of deaths will occur in Russian society over time. However, the war would have to drag on for many more years. To act against the authorities, another "super crisis in the state" would have to occur.

According to sociologists' estimates, "non-opponents" account for about one-third, at most just under half of the society. For example, in March 2024, according to the Levada Center, 49% of respondents cited casualties on both sides of the conflict as the reason to stop the war.

What is PS Lab? Since 2011, it has studied Russian attitudes and the background of social protests in the country. Russian sociologists cooperate with several dozen universities worldwide, such as George Washington University and the French University of Paris 8 Vincennes-Saint-Denis. The Russian authorities consider them so-called foreign agents, meaning an institution influenced by the hostile West.

"We are the only team that systematically monitors Russians' perception of the war using qualitative methods, i.e., extensive interviews. On the third day of the war, we started collecting and analyzing data, trying to understand what is happening in Russian society," writes PS Lab about itself.

Researchers lived for four months in the provinces of three Russian regions: in Krasnodar Territory, which is close to the front lines; in Buryatia - where many soldiers have been killed; and in Sverdlovsk Region (considered typical Russia). They collected interviews with people such as a car mechanic, a local clergyman, a respected doctor, or an official.