Russians bring the S‑400. An analysis of satellite images by experts

Analysts from the Bellingcat service have reported that the Russian army is reinforcing air defense in areas bordering Ukraine. They have analyzed thousands of satellite images captured from late October to early November. The conclusions are clear, the Russians have relocated at least two S-400 air defense systems.

Bellingcat noted that the absence of the S-400 coincided with a surge in flights by An-124 and IL-76 transport aircraft from the Kaliningrad region over the Baltic Sea, heading towards Petersburg. As they crossed the state border, the pilots switched off their transponders, preventing the tracking of the aircraft's route and landing location.

Speculation on Russian and Ukrainian social media suggests that the Russians are bolstering air defenses in response to the anticipated arrival of F-16 multirole aircraft in Ukraine.

The nearly year-long process of transferring the F-16s to Ukraine concluded in August 2023, when the Netherlands and Denmark announced their plans to donate aircraft to Kyiv. The Danes confirmed they will provide 19 planes. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen announced that the first batch of six planes would be transferred between 2023 and 2024.

While the Dutch have not disclosed the total size of their contribution, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has revealed that a total of 42 aircraft will be delivered to Ukraine. The exact delivery schedule remains unknown, but the transfer of the last five aircraft is scheduled for 2025.

This means that by February, the Ukrainians will have at most one squadron of F-16s, possibly consisting of six planes. So why have the Russians already started relocating their air defense systems?

While analysts are unsure about the exact locations to which the S-400s have been transferred, they hypothesize that they might have been delivered to Rostov-on-Don, which has faced increasing attacks in recent weeks. Explosions were documented in the city's industrial districts on October 21, 23, and 24, and again on November 4 and 9.

Following each instance, regional authorities maintained that air defenses functioned effectively. However, the alarm amongst Russian citizens was evident on social media. Posts accusing both civil and military authorities of negligence quickly disappeared.

The Ukrainians have increasingly launched attacks on Russian territory. Their surprise strikes on airfields in Pskov, Kursk, and the Engels-2 strategic bomber base in Diagilev have upset the Russian command, who didn't anticipate such effective attacks on their rear airfields.

Russia also faces significant issues in Crimea, which has been the target of Ukrainian drone and precision missile attacks for the past two months, including Storm Shadow and Neptune missiles. Therefore, it's possible that the systems' relocation to Rostov-on-Don is a stepping stone towards their final destination.

Faced with significant losses since late September, improving the air defenses of occupied Crimea seems essential. In the summer, the Russians had deployed five S-400 Triumph batteries in Crimea. In less than a month, they lost two systems. Both systems were destroyed from the air, first on August 23, and then on September 13.

The destruction of the first system cleared a path for the Ukrainians into the peninsula, and through this gap in the air defense, 42 Ukrainian drones infiltrated the area the following night, striking the barracks. The destruction of the second system preceded an attack on the ships in Sevastopol's dock. Both the large landing ship "Minsk" and the submarine "Rostov-on-Don" incurred substantial damage.

Having already established successful attack routes that skillfully evade Russian air defenses, Ukrainians launched subsequent attacks. On the night of November 4, SCALP-EG missiles hit the corvette "Askold" docked at the Zaliv shipyard. One of the newest Black Sea Fleet ships suffered severe damage, making repairs potentially uneconomical. Even if the Russians decide to proceed with repairs, it may take many years.

Such significant losses are unacceptable for the Kremlin, leading to the probable relocation of S-400s from Kaliningrad to Rostov-on-Don. It is likely that both systems will be transferred to Crimea via the Crimean Bridge to patch up the gaps in their air defense. However, as previously experienced, the S-400 has notable difficulties combating strikes from modern Western systems.

The S-400 system uses two types of missiles. In theory, the 48N6 missiles, designed to destroy maneuvering missiles, have a range of up to 93 miles at the lowest altitude, and the 96N6 missiles, designed to destroy ballistic missiles, have a range of up to 37 miles. However, as demonstrated by the attack on Sevastopol, their efficiency and effectiveness are significantly low. Despite the defenses being tricked, a valuable set was also lost.

The Russians mainly shot ADM-160B MALD decoys, which mimic missile rockets, diverting attention from the genuine missiles, in this case, the Storm Shadow missiles which hit directly in dry docking. Within a matter of minutes, the Russians incurred a loss of billions of rubles.

Even pro-government Russian experts recognize that even their most advanced systems cannot withstand Ukrainian attacks. The Russians' vulnerabilities are particularly evident when facing low-flying maneuvering missiles and missile swarms.

There is the potential for Ukrainians to once again employ the scheme from the past two months- striking the air defense with R-360 Neptune missiles, paving the way for drones and Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG to infiltrate again.

A renewed air offensive over Crimea might be gaining momentum.