Russian warships flee Black Sea under Ukrainian drone threat

In early June, Mikhail Razvozhayev said that Russian ships didn't sail away; they changed their tactics. They were not in the bay because staying there would expose them to additional dangers.

In this way, the governor of annexed Sevastopol explained the absence of surface vessels of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in the waters around the city and the Black Sea in general. This "change of tactics" means that systematic losses have forced the Russians to retreat to the Sea of Azov.

Since the start of the full-scale war, the Black Sea Fleet has been reduced by nearly one-third. The most prominent case was the destruction of the cruiser "Moskva" in the spring of 2022, which sank after being hit by Neptune missiles. Today, however, it's not Ukrainian missiles but small floating unmanned units that are the Russians' nightmare. These are Magura kamikaze drones, which can carry explosive charges weighing 660 pounds. These drones have destroyed, among others, the landing ship "Cezar Kunikov," the patrol ship "Sergei Kotov," and the missile corvette "Ivanovets."

The financial metric is excellent for the Ukrainians. One floating drone costs them approximately $240,000. Meanwhile, the estimated damage inflicted on the Russians by these drones amounts to nearly $480 million.

The Russian vessels are armed with AK-630 automatic cannons, supported by the modern Bagira fire control system. Still, insufficient crew training has meant that the Russians have been unable to destroy the drones before they reach their targets.

The Russians had to put on a brave face and "change tactics." They moved their surface vessels to the Sea of Azov and now operate from the port of Novorossiysk.

Only Russian submarines remain in the Black Sea. The Ukrainians do not have units capable of combating them.

The 4th Independent Submarine Brigade, part of the Black Sea Fleet, currently has six Project 636.3 Varshavyanka-class submarines (two are in the Mediterranean Sea) and one Project 877B Halibut-class submarine. All "Varshavyankas" can carry four Kalibr cruise missiles and between 14 and 18 torpedoes, depending on the caliber.

The newest 636.3 units began entering service in 2014. The Central Design Bureau MT Rubin in Saint Petersburg designed them. Project 636.3 is an advancement of Project 877E, known in NATO as Kilo.

The new version features significantly better combat capabilities compared to its predecessors. Project 636.3 submarines have more powerful and modern diesel engines, greater underwater speed, and range. Thanks to new transmissions and propellers, the submarines also operate much more quietly. They are also equipped with a new automated combat management system and a modern inertial navigation system.

These types of submarines displace 2,350 tons on the surface (4,350 tons underwater). Diesel-electric engines allow them to achieve a speed of 23 mph. Their autonomy is 45 days, and their range is estimated at 8,060 miles at an economic speed of 8 mph.

In the Black Sea, there is no need to fully utilize their autonomy and range. The units go out to sea, take a position in a designated zone, wait for target parameters and the order to launch Kalibr missiles, and then return to the base to load more missiles.

The "change in tactics" on the water is not only due to the inability to combat kamikaze drones but also to the third change of command of the Black Sea Fleet since the start of the full-scale war.

A few weeks after the sinking of the "Moskva," Admiral Igor Osipov was dismissed. His successor, Vice Admiral Viktor Sokolov, also failed to find a way to reduce losses and met the same fate as his predecessor.

Since February, Vice Admiral Sergey Pinchuk has been in command. This choice was surprising, as he was initially responsible for maritime operations against Ukraine as the head of the planning department. However, he didn't manage very well, as evidenced by the failed landing on Odesa, the loss of transports in Berdyansk, and the defeat in the Battle of Snake Island. His main task is maintaining the frequency of strikes on Ukraine from submarines.