Russian navy's decline: Aging fleet struggles to stay afloat

Project 1144 missile cruisers are large vessels. They boast a displacement of 29,000 tons, hulls 827 feet long, two nuclear reactors providing unlimited range, and 20 launchers for the anti-ship P-700 Granit missiles, each 33 feet long and weighing 15,000 pounds. Additionally, they are equipped with 12 launchers for S-300F Fort air defense missiles, short-range launchers, and powerful artillery.

The Soviet Union constructed four units in the 1970s and 80s — one as part of Project 1144 and three improved ones as part of Project 11442. Building large ships was part of an ambitious plan to transform the Soviet Navy into an ocean-going fleet capable of challenging the US Navy.

Forty years ago, the specifications of Project 1144 missile cruisers might have been impressive. However, today the pride of the Russian fleet is likened to a "blind boxer" — units theoretically with strong offensive armament but featuring outdated sensors, defenseless against modern electronic warfare, and incapable of self-defense. The fate of the cruiser "Moskva" (a unit half the size, representing Project 1164), which was destroyed by Ukrainian forces, illustrates what happens when a relic of a past era is deployed into battle.

The Russians themselves are aware of the weaknesses of their fleet's last big ships. That's why they decommissioned two of the four Project 1144 units at the start of the 21st century. The flagship of the Northern Fleet, "Pyotr Veliky," is set to head to the repair yard once the modernization of the twin unit "Admiral Nakhimov" is completed. The current plan is for "Nakhimov" to return to service in 2026, with "Pyotr Veliky" being removed from the fleet roster in 2030.

The problem is that the Russian cruiser has been under repair since 1997. It's important to note that, similar to the 18-year construction of the Polish corvette ORP "Ślązak," the extremely long renovation or construction time does not imply continuous work over the years. The work was started, stopped, and resumed multiple times, depending on current political decisions.

Despite this, the service history of the Russian cruiser is unusual. Launched in 1986 and joining the fleet in 1988, the ship entered the repair yard in 1997 and has not left it since. Only in the past decade has the Kremlin repeatedly announced that the large ship would return to service in 2018, 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024, and now claims it will be in 2026. Ukrainians estimate — though it's hard to verify the accuracy of these estimates — that the modernization has already cost up to $5 billion.

There is a glimmer of hope for finally completing the prolonged renovation, originating from the information that one of the two KN-3 nuclear reactors, each with an output of 201,000 horsepower, powering the "Admiral Nakhimov," has been started. According to Ukrainian sources, this occurred on December 20, 2024, although Russian media reported it considerably later.

The reconstruction of "Admiral Nakhimov," while not transforming it into a modern warship, aims to significantly enhance its capabilities. This involves installing an 80-container vertical launcher system, UKSK 3S14. This is the Russian equivalent of the Western Mk 41 VLS launchers, allowing warships to carry varied armaments — depending on the task at hand — housed in hidden vertical launchers below the deck.

This solution will enable the old ship to launch modern Russian missiles for attacking ships and land targets, such as Zircon, Oniks, or Kalibr. For the Russian fleet, 80 launch containers represent a considerable number. Notably, American Ticonderoga-class cruisers are armed with 122 Mk 41 VLS launchers with a displacement three times smaller.

Russian propaganda will surely portray the potential return to service of "Admiral Nakhimov" as a major success and a substantial boost for the navy. Several years ago, the TASS agency announced "Nakhimov's" return to service, calling it the most powerful warship in the world.

This is evidently untrue, and the facts tell a different story. The Russian navy, even in the 1980s when it aspired to be an ocean-going fleet, is gradually eroding and losing its capabilities.

The largest Russian warship — the aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov — has been undergoing problematic repairs for so long that Russian naval aviation has nearly ceased to exist, similar to the ship's trained crew, part of whom was sent to fight on the ground in, Ukraine.

The two nuclear missile cruisers are "Admiral Nakhimov," which remains in endless repairs, and "Pyotr Veliky," which is still awaiting repairs. Two smaller conventionally-powered cruisers, "Varyag" and "Marshal Ustinov," are contemporaries of "Moskva" with similar capabilities.

Russia can still organize propaganda voyages to Cuba or joint patrols with China near Japan or Alaska. However, in terms of potential, its navy is a shadow of the maritime power that the Soviet Union aimed to build in the past.

Russian shipyards are still constructing frigates, corvettes, submarines, and new landing ships, but the number of new units is insufficient to replace older, retired ships and rejuvenate the fleet generationally.

Propaganda reports about plans to build large, new-generation warships, such as a nuclear aircraft carrier based on a design from the 1980s, project 1143.7, can be considered wholly unreliable. The pinnacle of Russia's current capabilities appears to be the delayed completion of the large amphibious assault ships of project 23900 Priboi.

However, this doesn't mean the threat from Russian warships should be underestimated, especially in the Baltic. Although the capabilities of Russian surface units are limited, submarines still pose a significant threat.

Although Russia's project 677 (Lada type) was unsuccessful, older, proven units of project 636 (currently 636.3) are still in production. Some of these submarines are armed with torpedoes and can launch Kalibr cruise missiles from underwater, posing a threat to both shipping and land targets.