TechRussian missile briefly enters Polish airspace: A detailed analysis
Russian missile briefly enters Polish airspace: A detailed analysis
5:11 PM EDT, March 25, 2024
Shortly after 10:20 PM on Sunday, March 24, a Russian missile entered Polish airspace and, after 39 seconds, returned to Ukrainian territory. What kind of weapon could have crossed into Poland? We delve into the details.
Recently, there has been a change in Russian attack tactics, reports the Unian agency. They highlight that Ukraine's adversary now conducts massive bombardments every one or two days. In the latest attacks, Russia has frequently utilized Tu-95 bombers, which were also active over Ukraine on that particular Sunday. Given that 14 bombers were present over Ukraine on March 24, it's highly probable that one of these bombers carried the errant weapon into Poland. This incident narrows down the potential suspect weapons to a few models.
### Tu-95 bombers over Ukraine
Reports from Ukraine indicate that diverse missiles were employed in the Sunday attack. According to a statement from the Military Administration of the City of Kyiv on Telegram, "The enemy once again used maneuverable missiles Kh-101/Kh-555/Kh-55 from strategic Tu-95 bombers."
Media reports did not indicate the appearance of any other types of weapons over Ukraine apart from the mentioned Kh-101, Kh-555, and Kh-55 missiles. The absence of reports on the characteristic whistle of the 3M22 Zircon missiles during their flight, which was noted following the missile attack on March 21, somewhat confirms that the aggressor limited its arsenal this time.
From the information currently available, it appears that one of the missiles bearing the designations 101, 555, or 55 could have been the one that temporarily entered Polish airspace. This possibility is also somewhat supported by Col. Jacek Goryszewski, spokesperson for the Operational Command of the Armed Forces, who noted that the missile was moving at a speed of almost 500 mph, a speed achievable by each of the mentioned missiles.
It's important to mention that late in December 2023, when a Russian missile violated Polish airspace, suspicion also fell on the Kh-101 missile. Additionally, the Kh-101 remains one of the most commonly used missiles by Russia in the conflict with Ukraine. Its production commenced in 2010-2011, making it one of the newer yet consistently produced missiles in the Russian arsenal.
Each of the three missiles mentioned by Ukrainian sources shares a similar design. Both the Kh-555 and Kh-101 are modernized versions of the original Kh-55, differing slightly in shape and performance.
Designed for stealth, the Kh-101 boasts a flattened fuselage, 24 feet in length and weighing 2.6 short tons. Its effectiveness is enhanced by a warhead, capable of carrying up to 1058 pounds, reaching distances of approximately 2796 miles. Additionally, certain models equipped for precise attacks feature the Otblesk-U guidance systems, enhancing accuracy and resisting jamming. The Kh-101's top speed nears 621 mph.
The other two potential missiles, the Kh-55 and Kh-555, could have also traversed Polish airspace briefly. The Kh-55 has a range of about 1864 miles, spans 20 feet in length, and can accelerate to approximately 590 mph. The Kh-555, an updated version of the Kh-55, swaps the nuclear warhead for a conventional blast warhead weighing over 661 pounds. This modification, necessitating adaptations to the fuel tanks, resulted in a reduced range of about 1740 miles.
