Russian missile blitz on Ukrainian children’s hospital: What we know
In the attack on July 8, 2024, one of the targets was a children's hospital. The Russians used a full range of long-range weapons, including hypersonic, ballistic, and both subsonic and supersonic cruise missiles. Here is a detailed overview of what was used and how.
9:47 AM EDT, July 9, 2024
According to Lieutenant General Mykola Oleschuk, Commander of the Ukrainian Air Force, the Russians launched 38 missiles in the attack. Ukrainian air defense shot down 30 of these missiles. Specifically, they intercepted one hypersonic Kh-47M2 Kinzhal missile, three out of four Iskander-M ballistic missiles, one hypersonic 3M22 Zircon missile, eleven out of thirteen Kh-101 cruise missiles, twelve out of fourteen Kalibr cruise missiles, and all three Kh-59/69 cruise missiles.
However, a pair of supersonic Kh-22 cruise missiles managed to penetrate the Ukrainian air defense. Despite the high effectiveness against numerous challenging targets hidden among easier ones, some missiles got through. One of the missiles (Kh-101) hit a children's hospital, among other targets.
Cruise missiles - low altitude flight and stealth features are key except for one exception
The Russians used several types of cruise missiles, including the Kh-101, Kalibr, and Kh-59/69 families. These missiles are characterized by stealth features that make radar detection difficult and low-altitude flight using natural cover like valleys or riverbeds.
These missiles range several thousand miles, mainly using wings and efficient turbojet engines. However, their downside is their relatively low flight speed of around Mach 0.8-0.9 (610 - 685 mph), making them vulnerable to systems like Gepard or handheld anti-aircraft systems like the FIM-92 Stinger.
However, these systems must be deployed along the missile's route, which is very challenging. Due to the radar horizon, it is also impossible to create a tight network of ground-based radars, which would need to be placed about every 25 miles. The only solution is airborne radar systems like AWACS aircraft that coordinate mobile ground intervention groups or fighter jets that shoot down detected missiles.
Unfortunately, Ukraine currently lacks such capabilities. Only Swedish AWACS and F-16 aircraft delivery will provide some capabilities in this area. On the other hand, the Kh-22 Raduga missiles are an anomaly among cruise missiles. Designed initially as anti-aircraft carrier weapons, they have a range of up to 310 miles and use high speeds of around Mach 4 (3050 mph) to evade air defense systems.
These missiles ascend after launch and then dive at high speed, leaving very little time for the target to react. In practice, medium-range air defense systems, which Ukraine has a significant shortage of, are needed to shoot them down.
Ballistic and hypersonic missiles - speed provides them relative impunity
Ballistic and hypersonic missiles employ a different approach to breaking through air defenses. For instance, the Iskander-M, which carries a warhead of about 1100 lbs, ascends to higher parts of the atmosphere and then falls to the target at speeds exceeding Mach 7 (over 5330 mph).
This makes them very difficult targets to shoot down despite their predictable flight paths, which can only be managed by a few air defense systems worldwide. Shooting down a ballistic missile with an anti-missile system like the Patriot or SAMP/T can be compared to hitting a needle with another needle.
In the case of hypersonic missiles, their enormous speed and ability to maneuver make their trajectory much more challenging to calculate. Russia is one of the few countries developing this type of weapon. However, their solutions, like the 3M22 Zircon or Kh-47M2 Kinzhal, perform much worse than expected.
