Russian gains in Kursk challenge Ukrainian leverage in talks

"Overall, the situation in the Kursk region (of Russia) isn't favorable," according to military analysts from the Ukrainian war mapping project DeepState, as cited by the American newspaper. They believe that Ukrainian forces are "undertaking stabilization efforts, but recovering what has been lost is extremely difficult."

According to Emil Kastehelmi, a military analyst from the Finnish group Black Bird Group, some Russian units "managed to advance relatively far into positions located behind Ukrainian army lines." Experts say Ukraine currently controls approximately 300 square miles of Russian territory. This represents a loss of about 25 percent of the area compared to the situation in August, when the Ukrainian army launched an offensive in the Kursk region.

The New York Times reminded that this offensive had two main objectives: "to force the Kremlin to redirect troops from other front segments to respond to the attack, thereby reducing pressure on Ukrainian forces, and to capture territory that Moscow would want to regain, potentially forcing it to the negotiation table."

As reported last week by the Washington think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the intensity of Russian attacks in the Kursk region is connected to the impending change in weather, which will make using heavy equipment impossible.

Ukraine will be able to maintain its positions for "several months, or even longer," because Russian forces are struggling with logistical issues and disorganization of command structure, said a high-ranking U.S. military official in an interview with The New York Times in early October, on condition of anonymity.

"Ukraine can hope to use the territory it controls in the Kursk region as a bargaining chip in potential peace negotiations, to exchange it for areas taken by Russia in Ukraine. However, Moscow has not yet signaled a willingness to engage in talks, as long as it holds an advantage on the battlefield," it is noted.