Russian frontline faltering as tank losses reach record highs
In Zaporizhzhia, the Russians have stopped using tanks and infantry fighting vehicles. Ukrainian intelligence reports that they have relocated these assets to Donbas, where they continue to try to break through the front.
8:56 AM EDT, July 21, 2024
According to data available to Ukraine, in June alone, the Russians lost around 420 tanks. This is a record number, as the average from the previous three months was already high, at 390 vehicles. This was the result of unsuccessful and repeatedly suicidal attacks.
The situation with mechanized troops is even worse from the Russian perspective. Units equipped with tracked and wheeled infantry fighting vehicles lose almost 890 vehicles monthly, an increase of 60 percent compared to last year.
Avdiivka, Pokrovsk, and Vuhledar did their part
The problem has grown so much that the Russians had to concentrate tanks only on key directions. Those that did not make it to the priority list were almost completely stripped of armored vehicles. Their thorny situation is well depicted in videos of attacks carried out by biker squads or Chinese light off-road vehicles, aptly compared to golf carts.
Spokesperson for the 14th Brigade of the Ukrainian National Guard, "Red Kalina," Capt. Mykola Koval said in an appearance on the brigade's online channel that the Russians have been using a new tactic on the Tokmak section of the front for a long time.
"The enemy is trying, as much as possible, to use less equipment or not to use it at all, sending several soldiers into the attack," described Koval, adding that this tactic has been observed for several weeks. "They have suffered heavy losses here and probably cannot find new people or equipment yet."
Ukrainian intelligence confirmed in a statement that the situation changed after the Russians suffered heavy losses near Avdiivka, Pokrovsk, and Vuhledar. By now transferring equipment to critical sectors, the Russians have fallen into a spiral from which it will be hard to escape.
Increasing losses, declining production
The aggressor's losses are likely to continue growing. This is a consequence of the situation in which the Russians find themselves. When the war began, the Kremlin had a relatively large number of experienced crews. Over nearly 30 months of fierce fighting, the best-trained ones have been depleted, and now reservists with a short "refresher course" are being sent to the front.
Therefore, the current level of tank crew training is incredibly low. Additionally, untested crews are using equipment that is incomparably worse than what the Russian army started the war with.
Firstly, the Russians lack the Western electronic technologies they were importing. Secondly, most vehicles being sent to the front are machines pulled out of storage, unpreserved, and refurbished. While unpreserved vehicles were in decent technical condition in the second year of the war, now the worse ones are being pulled out. For example, about 925 T-80B and T-80BW tanks have been sent to the front so far, and only about 300 of these machines may remain in storage.
A report by the London International Institute for Strategic Studies estimated that the Russians lost about 9,000 tanks and armored vehicles in the first two years of the invasion. Therefore, they were forced to resort to archaic T-62, T-54, and T-55 tanks. Even technically, museum-level BTR-50 armored personnel carriers, which entered the Soviet Army in 1954, have begun to appear on the front lines.
According to Russian reports, the UralVagonZavod tank factory, which produces new T-90M tanks and modernizes T-72B3 and T-80BW tanks, can deliver 50 tanks to the front per month. In reality, it is much worse. The French Institut Action Resilience estimated that tank production in Russia does not exceed 390 units annually. That is about 30 vehicles per month. This means that losses are ten times greater than the production capacity of Russian factories.
The production of infantry fighting vehicles is equally dire. Currently, BMP-3 production reaches about 400 units annually. The Russians can reclaim and refurbish about 600 BMP-1 and BMP-2 from storage annually. However, the storages are not bottomless. According to analyses, they are already 70 percent empty.
They are weakening but can still wage war
Finally, it has come to what was hoped for by imposing sanctions: the Russians are unable to send to the front a sufficient amount of equipment that would technically match that provided to Ukraine by its allies.
Despite being switched to wartime mode, the Russian defense industry is unable to match battle losses. However, the Russians still have such large stockpiles of equipment and a human reservoir that they can wage a prolonged positional war.
