Russian forces scale back aggression but fears rise over potential intensified attacks in Ukraine's Avdiivka

Estonian intelligence has detected signs that point towards a progressive reduction in the intensity of Russia's offensive efforts in Ukraine. "The overall intensity of military operations has lessened compared with previous weeks, with one exception", asserts Ants Kiviselg, the head of the Intelligence Center of the Estonian Defense Forces. Information suggests that Russia is bracing for intensified attacks in a specific area of Ukraine.

"In the Avdiivka region, Russian-initiated shellings show an increasing trend," informs the military. Estonia, Russia's neighbor, notes that the reduction in Russia's military activity in Ukraine might be due to changing weather conditions. The military explains that the front is experiencing more precipitation, and the favorable temperatures are turning the roads into rugged terrains.

While the Russian attacks across Ukraine appear to be declining, there is one area where it seems the assailant is bolstering its forces. Estonia comments that Russia is amassing a significant amount of equipment in Avdiivka, possibly in anticipation of future attacks. "The various acts of Russians could very well be aimed at shattering the Ukrainian spirit of resistance", Kiviselg suggests.

It's important to remember that Avdiivka has been the scene of some of the most intense battles for months. A critical location for both sides of the conflict, the "gateway to Donetsk", sees Ukraine and Russia fiercely competing for control. While Russia may redirect most of its forces to Avdiivka, it loses valuable equipment.

In early 2024, Forbes revealed that Russia had lost 143 tanks during the battles over a few weeks, compared to Ukraine's loss of merely 14 similar units. Therefore, the "Russian death trap" label given to Avdiivka isn't inappropriate.

Much Russian loss is credited to the formidable mechanisms employed by Ukraine's defending army - notably, the M2 Bradley fighting vehicles. These tanks have been witnessed frequently in recent frontline footage, including those where Putin's "pride", the T-90M Proryv tank, gets destroyed. The Bradleys come equipped with a robust M242 Bushmaster 25 mm cannon and a 7.62 mm machine gun, a lethal partnership against even more heavily armored Russian tanks.

In Avdiivka, Russia is suffering the loss of tanks and Su-25 fighters, which fortify the infantry during ground battles. The destruction of the TOS-1A thermobaric missile launchers is also worth mentioning. In possession of the invader, these launchers constitute a significant risk because their missiles can vaporize everything upon detonation.