Russian forces push Ukrainians back in the Kursk region advances

Russian units continue to advance on Ukrainian positions in the Kursk region in nearly all directions. According to analysts and representatives of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), we may witness Ukrainians withdrawing from Russian-controlled areas in the coming weeks.

Among those drawing such conclusions is Julian Röpke, an analyst for the German portal BILD. He noted that the current dynamic shows the Russians systematically approaching their own border and pushing back the Ukrainians. Consequently, "most likely in the coming weeks, or at the latest, months, the Ukrainians will withdraw."

Röpke also points out that the equipment allowing Russians to make visible progress includes drones controlled by fiber-optic cables. Their range is estimated to be about 5 miles. The most important feature of these constructions is that they are not susceptible to electronic warfare systems. As a result, the Russians are effectively destroying Ukrainian equipment.

The latest ISW report emphasizes that the Russians aim to reclaim their territories before the approaching winter, during which field operations become significantly hindered.

"Intensified Russian counterattacks will likely aim to push Ukrainian forces out of the Kursk region before bad weather conditions in the fall of 2024 and early winter of 2024/2025 start to restrict maneuverability on the battlefield," explains ISW.

Both sides of the ongoing war have deployed substantial forces, including the heaviest and most valuable armored equipment, to the Kursk region. The Ukrainian command decided to send some of the elite brigades equipped with gear from NATO countries there. In Russian-held territories, one could see, among others, Challenger 2, Leopard, and Polish PT-91 Twardy tanks. Reports appearing on social media also showed Ukrainian use of Stryker and Oncilla armored personnel carriers, originally from the USA and Poland.

Russians in the Kursk region are using, among others, T-80BWM and T-90M tanks, which are considered the most valuable in their army. Ukrainians have destroyed some of these machines. The Russians aim to avoid more such situations, especially since the forces sent to Kursk would be very useful in the Donetsk area, among other places.

"The Russian military command likely intends to quickly push Ukrainian forces out of the Kursk region to free combat forces for their priority offensive operations in the Donetsk region and alleviate operational pressure across the entire theater of operations generated by the Ukrainian advance (in Russian territory)," explain analysts from ISW.