Russian forces advance in Kharkiv region: A strategic diversion?

The strategic goal of the Russian offensive operations, currently limited in scope in the north of the Kharkiv region, is to divert Ukrainian forces from other front sections. This assessment comes from the latest report by the American think tank, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

An extensive analysis by ISW focused on the offensive operations that the Russian army initiated in the north of the Kharkiv region last Friday. Experts believe these actions, currently limited in nature, do not aim for a large-scale operation to encircle and seize city control.

According to ISW, the Russian forces likely aim to push Ukrainian troops away from the Belgorod region border and advance their forces closer to Kharkiv, within artillery range.

"On Friday morning, Russian troops started offensive operations along the Russian-Ukrainian border north of the Kharkiv region, achieving significant tactical gains. Likely, this marks the initial phase of the offensive, with limited operational goals but a strategic intention to divert Ukrainian troops from other key sectors of the front in eastern Ukraine," ISW evaluated.

The Russians carried out two limited operations near the Lyptsi localities and one near Volchansk. The Ukrainian side reported that these attacks involved assault infantry groups supported by armored vehicles. Meanwhile, the Russians significantly stepped up aerial bombings, artillery, and rocket fire.

According to various sources from both the Ukrainian and Russian sides, the Russians managed to take control of the border villages of Strilecha, Krasne, and Pylna, and possibly Borysivka. The Russians also advanced towards Volchansk, but the exact extent of their progress remains uncertain.

ISW predicts that the invaders will seek to expand their tactical gains through additional attacks, aiming to push Ukrainian forces further back and bring themselves within artillery range of Kharkiv.

The think tank, citing available footage, noted that the Russians deployed relatively small forces and limited equipment for the northern attacks. Previous reports suggested that the invaders assembled forces between 35,000 and 50,000 in this region.

According to ISW, the current limited actions of the Russian forces do not seem to indicate plans for a large-scale offensive on Kharkiv designed to encircle and seize the city. While analysts acknowledge the possibility that these operations could be preparatory for a later offensive, they consider it "difficult" for the Russians to capture Kharkiv if that were their intention.

ISW suggests that the Kremlin aims to maximize the "relatively short window of opportunity" before the arrival of Western aid to Ukraine, which may be triggering Russian actions in this direction.