Russian crime surge: Pardoned convicts and soldiers fuel concern

In 2023, the number of crimes committed by soldiers in Russia increased by 20 percent, according to data from the Russian Supreme Court. However, these figures do not include crimes committed by tens of thousands of pardoned convicts who returned home after serving six months on the front.

As Bloomberg reported at the end of June, although the overall number of crimes committed by soldiers not on the front is still small, there has been a surge in cases of violent crimes, theft, and drug-related offenses.

A separate issue concerns prisoners who enlisted in the Wagner Group and went to the front. After six months of service, they could receive a pardon and return home. "In prison, they are treated as if they are nothing, and on the front, it is even worse," sociologist Iskender Jasayev from Kazan told Bloomberg. "The experience they return with is a trauma that will manifest for decades," he assessed.

"The return of prisoners who fought for Wagner is an early signal of what may happen when hundreds of thousands of men brutally treated during the fighting return to civilian life," the agency commented. It reported that the return of former convicts to pre-prison life is often a shock to local communities. Residents of towns and villages suddenly discover they live among men they thought were serving long prison sentences. Among the pardoned are those convicted of murder and even cannibalism.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, in November 2023, tried to calm the mood, explaining that criminals pardoned by Vladimir Putin "paid for their crimes with blood on the battlefield." There will be no mass return of pardoned inmates to their homes for now. Since March this year, a law has been in effect that removes the chance of gaining freedom after serving six months. If a prisoner decides to go to the front, they must stay there until the war's end (like other conscripts). Only then will they receive a pardon.

Then, Russia may experience a shock. "Post-war crime growth could cost Russia up to 0.6 percent of its gross domestic product," Russian economist with Bloomberg Alex Isakov told the agency. Apart from the direct costs of loss of life and property, the state will have to bear higher expenditures on social care and security, especially on the police," he explained.

Bloomberg also points out that Russia is trying to attract recruits by enticing them with good money by local standards. Contract soldiers are being offered monthly salaries of 204,000 rubles (approximately $2,200), as well as signing bonuses that can reach up to a million rubles (over $11,000). This has caused a short-term drop in economic crime (such as thefts and robberies), particularly in rural Russia. Many poor individuals have enlisted in the military.

On the other hand, many poorly paid police officers have also taken this step. Minister of Internal Affairs Vladimir Kolokoltsev said in May that there is a shortage of 152,000 officers across Russia, and in some regions, one in four positions is unfilled. This will likely increase the challenges faced by authorities in curbing crime - assessed Bloomberg.