Russian army struggles to control Donetsk and Luhansk due to diminishing resources, claims Ukrainian intelligence
Budanov stressed that while Ukraine is currently grappling with challenges, Russia is also facing its own problems.
1:42 PM EST, February 21, 2024
"The professional Russian army was decimated during the first year of invasion. They are expending more artillery ammunition than they manufacture, relying mostly on dated tank models. In addition, rocket attacks against Ukrainian cities have declined due to diminishing rocket supplies," remarked the head of HUR in an interview with The Wall Street Journal.
Budanov noted that these factors render it unfeasible for Russia to successfully control all regions of Donetsk and Luhansk in the current year.
"They simply do not possess the required strength," Budanov emphasized.
Quoted in The Wall Street Journal, Western officials suggest that the best scenario for Ukraine this year would be skillful defense coupled with enemy weakening, while simultaneously rebuilding and preparing their own forces for potential offense next year.
The article also cites an analysis by the British think tank RUSI, which predicts that the Russian army will reach its maximum strength by the end of 2024. Thereafter, it will start grappling with increased issues related to ammunition and armored vehicle availability.
Operation Underway
Budanov pointed out that Russia recently initiated a plan that blends disinformation with attempts at "false flag" attacks on high-profile Ukrainians. The intent is to provoke divisions within Ukrainian society and lower the morale of soldiers.
Budanov shared that the culmination of this campaign is expected in the spring, coinciding with a renewed surge of attacks on the front. However, he refrained from commenting on whether former president Petro Poroshenko was amongst the targets. Poroshenko claimed an attempted assassination made it impossible for him to attend the Munich Security Conference last week.
Nonetheless, Budanov speculated that part of the Russian operation was to disseminate a fabricated video online, which impersonates a France24 TV report. The video "reports" that French President Emmanuel Macron canceled his Kyiv visit over concerns about a coup attempt. Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev also propagated the same baseless theories.
"All these are components of the same grand scheme," highlighted the head of Ukrainian military intelligence.
