Russia vs. Ukraine: A tense showdown beyond the battlefield

Victory Day serves as a significant state holiday in Russia. To commemorate the "victory over Nazism," a parade featuring veterans is organized in Moscow. This year's parade is expected to showcase destroyed Western equipment from the battlefields of Ukraine.

Last year, our discussions centered around Russian delicacies. This year, the narrative has shifted, according to experts. Ukraine finds itself in retreat, with the threat of Russian forces looming over the Kharkiv and Sumy regions. Criticism towards President Zelensky, who once enjoyed widespread adulation, is growing. This extends to General Oleksandr Syrskiy, the commander-in-chief he appointed.

Ukraine's luck seemed to run out with last year's unsuccessful counteroffensive. The front is experiencing a shortage of ammunition, forcing the country to mobilize increasingly younger defenders. Yet, decisive action in this "match" remains unseen. Still, as Colonel Maciej Korowaj of the reserves says, Russia has managed to conserve more strength.

Maciej Korowaj, with a background in military intelligence and experience in Eastern Europe, compares war to boxing. He advises, keeping with his metaphor, "not to judge the match after just one round."

"Russia is contemplating whether to persist with a 'balanced' war or to strike a decisive, crushing blow. Although it has been bombing and devastating Ukraine and its infrastructure, it hasn't deployed its full might against Ukraine. Russia aims to fatigue Europe into indifference towards the war. But its primary objective - neutralizing the perceived Ukrainian 'threat to Moscow' - remains unfulfilled, despite carving a corridor to Crimea. As of now, we can't declare a Russian victory, which would entail driving Ukrainian forces beyond the Dnieper River," Colonel Korowaj explains.

The expert also anticipates the West adopting a more assertive stance on support. Ukraine faced severe difficulties with ammunition supply between last year and this, with Western stockpiles dwindling. Now, those supplies have begun to increase once more.

As the colonel suggests, the dilemma he earlier mentioned persists: Should we continue a "balanced war" or end it with a knockout punch? Yet, such an outcome wouldn’t align with the Kremlin's expectations.

While presenting their gains as a triumph might resonate within Russian society, in Korowaj's view, it won't be seen as a victory in the West or China.

Even more concerning, he posits that we cannot dismiss, although admittedly far-fetched, the possibility of Russia attacking NATO countries as a means to... conclude the war in Ukraine.

The analyst describes the current conflict as "a war of small victories," with Russia experiencing not just successes. Russia's failure to maintain control over the western Black Sea represents a Russian defeat, enabling Ukraine to sell its agricultural products more freely. However, Ukrainian setbacks were more numerous last year.

Despite easing the blockade on part of the Black Sea, the "southern corridor" remains partly operational. Thanks to General Mordwiczew's strategic move, Russia took Avdiivka, thereby preventing Ukrainian artillery from threatening Donetsk. In 2022, after a long defense, Mariupol was captured. Last year saw the fall of Bakhmut. And this May 9, Russians can celebrate the capture of Avdiivka.

"Returning to the boxing analogy: for now, Ukraine leads on points, despite the heavy toll of the last round. Yet, neither contender is 'on the ropes,' nor does it appear likely that one will be soon. Ukraine retains its mobility and continues to fight, and although Russia has conserved strength for a powerful knockout blow, it has yet to land it," believes Colonel Korowaj.

No clear victory or defeat is discernible for either party, notes historian and diplomat Professor Hieronim Grala. He highlights not just the unwavering position of the "Russian tsar" but also a significant decrease in popularity for the "Ukrainian Mahatma," President Zelensky. This decline is mainly due to his decision to sideline Zaluzhny in favor of General Syrsky, who lacks public trust and is almost regarded as sympathetic to Russia. Especially under his command, the front lines have receded, a continuing trend.

"The Russians will exhibit some destroyed Western equipment in their parade, a move they will tout as a success. Highly propagandistic, yet a success nonetheless. It's rather surprising to see disdain for this in the West, as they have engaged in similar practices. Destroyed Russian equipment was displayed on our Castle Square, so the critique of Russians showcasing enemy losses appears hypocritical," comments the historian.

Furthermore, Professor Grala notes that the Russian military has improved its combat effectiveness after the setbacks of their 2022 offensive and the evident successes of the Ukrainian counteroffensive. Today's narrative, which is chiefly from Ukraine, has shifted from "Ukraine fights for us" to occasionally blunt accusations of "why don't you fight for us?"—a sentiment echoed by Ukrainian refugees in Poland. Like Colonel Korowaj, he suggests that Russia is poised for a decisive strike, possibly around the turn of June and July.

"The Russians have enhanced their electronic warfare capabilities, making drones less effective against them. Meanwhile, Ukraine is struggling with a chronic shortage of ammunition, making it an easier target," he mentions.

Ukraine's morale is on the decline. The prospect of defeat increasingly haunts not Russian but Ukrainian society, which the promise of imminent victory had buoyed. Few positive developments are visible. After the falls of Mariupol, Bakhmut, and now Avdiivka, as pointed out by Professor Grala, the presumed technological superiority of the West, providing a decisive edge for Ukraine, seems overstated.

"It became evident that even Challenger and Abrams tanks can be destroyed, and HIMARS systems can be neutralized. Thus, Ukrainians, much like in historical instances, are crafting a narrative of heroic stand, akin to Thermopylae, atop the graves of their defenders. But the ranks of these modern-day Spartans are thinning, with success increasingly elusive and many opting for safety abroad," observes Professor Grala.

As the Kremlin gears up for the May 9 celebrations, historians note that among Russia's historical commemorations, the end of the Great Patriotic War remains a pivotal moment for national pride.

"Russia reaches back to its historical narratives for support. Currently, they are drawing upon the alliance of the throne and altar, verging on declaring a religious crusade in Ukraine. They're reviving old cults, reminiscing about Stalin, and as in centuries past, positioning themselves against 'crusaders, latins, and Lutherans,' today, they frame their adversaries as 'geyropa, sodomites, and the LGBT community'," concludes the former diplomat.