Russia under pressure: Kremlin urged to mobilize troops
According to European intelligence sources, the General Staff of Russia and the Ministry of Defense are putting "serious pressure" on the Kremlin to announce a new mobilization to replenish forces in Ukraine. In an interview with The Economist, NATO officials reported that Russia is struggling with a shortage of soldiers.
7:36 AM EDT, October 30, 2024
"Currently, Russia does not have sufficient forces. Even if they managed to achieve a breakthrough, they would not be able to exploit it," explained one senior NATO official.
The Russian army still relies on outdated tactics, leading to massive battlefield losses. Support from North Korean soldiers, who reports say are being sent to the front in the Kursk region, indicates the problems facing Russian forces.
NATO Chief Mark Rutte reported on Monday in Brussels that about 600,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded in the war in Ukraine. The deployment of North Korean troops in Russia, confirmed by the Alliance, was called "an act of growing desperation" by Vladimir Putin.
Producing significantly more weapons
Sources with The Economist confirm that the Russian arms industry significantly exceeds the production of Western countries. "While the European Union estimates its annual ammunition production at one million units, Russia produces three times more, with support from North Korea and Iran," we read.
"I am not sure if we can produce enough to meet Ukraine's needs without serious compromises in other areas," explained a source familiar with U.S. military aid to Ukraine.
Mobilization and recruitment
NATO estimates that Russia recruits about 30,000 new soldiers each month. Although this is insufficient for achieving all front-line goals, it helps cover enormous human losses. According to Dr. Jack Watling, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, "Russia cannot conduct warfare indefinitely," but if the frontline situation does not change, the "critical point" for Ukraine might come first.
Dr. Watling believes that Russia aims to achieve its objectives in the Donbas next year, assuming that the Ukrainian army will suffer material and personnel losses that will prevent it from stopping further Russian advances. Such a scenario would give Russia the upper hand in potential peace negotiations.
In mid-September, The Wall Street Journal reported that Russian military command had approached dictator Vladimir Putin to announce another wave of mobilization.
Similar requests also appeared in March this year when Putin was "re-elected" as president.
During a meeting with the Ministry of Defense leadership, May's inauguration was suggested to be used to announce mobilization. However, Putin refused, stating that he wanted to rely solely on those who voluntarily signed contracts with the ministry.
Putin is afraid to announce mobilization
Mobilization in Russia in the short and medium term is unlikely due to Vladimir Putin's concerns about the social consequences it could trigger, assessed at the end of September by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW), noting recurring speculations about possible mobilization in response to the frontline situation in Ukraine.
"Putin fears that mobilization would pose a direct threat to the stability of his regime," ISW justifies its assessment.
