Russia taps prison ranks for Ukraine conflict, faces penal colony closures

Russia, engaged in conflict with Ukraine, is increasingly enlisting prisoners. As the Russian newspaper "Kommersant" reported, and the BBC quoted on Thursday, Mark Denisov, the human rights commissioner in Krasnodar Krai, disclosed plans to local deputies about streamlining and cost-saving in the penal system by closing several facilities.

This decision comes as a result of a "significant drop in the number of convicts". Denisov mentioned that among those to be closed are a penal colony for repeat offenders in Gromadsk and a facility for first-time offenders in Areiskoe.

The decline in inmate numbers is without precedent. Deputy Justice Minister Vsevolod Vukolov unveiled in October that before the conflict, Russia's prisons housed 420,000 convicts. Now, their number has plunged to a record low of 266,000, as noted by the "Washington Post".

Media reports suggest that the significant reduction in the prison population results from massive recruitment efforts by the Russian military and a private military company known as the Wagner Group, sending convicts to fight in Ukraine.

In December 2022, the US Department of Defense estimated that approximately 40,000 prisoners had been deployed to the front by the Wagner Group. Mercenaries enticed volunteers with promises of pardons after surviving six months of combat. The British Ministry of Defense indicates that in 2023, the Russian Ministry of Defense itself adopted the practice of widespread conscription of prisoners, with Moscow sparing no expense for this initiative.

However, the BBC highlights that the future for these convict-soldiers serving in exchange for their freedom appears bleak. Reports suggest they may be required to fight for the duration of the conflict. Only reaching an age or a health condition that prevents further military involvement will permit them to retire from the front lines.

Furthermore, contrary to initial promises, those serving are expected to be released on parole rather than receiving a full pardon. "If you sign up now, be ready to die," warned a convict named Sergei at a forum for prisoners fighting in Ukraine, as quoted by the BBC.

General Oleksandr Pavliuk, commander of the Land Forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, reported on Wednesday that Russia is assembling a new force of over 100,000 soldiers. He speculates this buildup could either replenish weakened units or prep for a summer offensive. Pavliuk noted that Ukraine remains unsure of the enemy's precise plans.

The commander assured that Ukrainian forces would do everything to inflict significant losses on the Russians, hindering their ability to form strategic reserves. He also lamented Ukraine's lack of air supremacy, which leaves its positions vulnerable to concentrated enemy air strikes.

Recruiting tens of thousands of prisoners is a desperate measure to offset the significant personnel shortages caused by enormous Russian losses since the invasion began. According to the Ukrainian General Staff, since February 24, 2022, the opponent has suffered over 160,000 casualties - either killed or severely injured. This exceeds the size of the entire Russian military at the war's outset.

This staggering toll, coupled with harsh discipline — including execution squads targeting deserters —, has severely undermined Russian morale. Despite resorting to forced mobilization and mass recruitment of prisoners, BBC reports indicate that for many convicts, military service in exchange for amnesty has effectively turned into a life sentence.