Russia prepared to sustain Ukraine conflict and confront NATO

The document elaborates that the Kremlin is undertaking significant reforms of its armed forces, inevitably boosting Russia's military capabilities in the Baltic Sea area. "Planned structural changes and modifications in the command system have already commenced, with several being implemented in the Kaliningrad oblast and western Russia," Lithuanian intelligence points out.

The report underscores that Russia is channeling vast resources into the Ukrainian conflict without showing any inclination towards de-escalation despite not meeting its operational goals. "Moreover, the country is preparing for a prolonged standoff with NATO, aiming to gradually expand its military reach westward," the report states.

The document also highlights the excessive financial expenditures on the war in Ukraine, surpassing initial budget allocations. In the first half of 2023, war-related spending exceeded the total allocated for the entire year, and it is projected that at least one-third of the military budget for 2024—over 10 trillion rubles, or $113 billion—will be dedicated to such purposes.

"War and the war industry have become pivotal to the Russian economy, drawing in the nation's financial, material, and human resources at the cost of other economic areas," Lithuanian intelligence emphasizes.

The report also delves into Russian history textbooks for 10th-11th graders published last year, which Lithuanian intelligence considers critical for national security due to their revelation of Russia's long-term ambitions.

"These textbooks portray Russia as a distinct civilization opposing the West, articulating Russia's strategic goals of establishing a multipolar world order in opposition to the West, wherein Russia would have exclusive rights over strategically significant regions. In the long run, the Russian government believes these textbooks will help foster a society that views long-term confrontation with the West positively, justifying the substantial resources funneled into this effort," the document outlines.

Lithuanian intelligence also sheds light on the situation in Belarus, which, under Russian influence, is enhancing its capacity to deploy nuclear weapons. Efforts are underway to modernize storage infrastructure, and Belarusian military personnel are receiving training on handling such weaponry.

The report mentions that in 2023, Belarus received an unprecedented volume of military aid from Russia, including Iskander missile systems with a range of about 310 miles, a battalion of BTR-82A armored personnel carriers, the S-400 air defense missile system, and Mi-35M attack helicopters.

Lithuanian intelligence annually releases a report detailing the threats to national security. The latest edition evaluates the most pressing threat factors and risks for the coming years, specifically 2024-2025.