Russia plans to station tactical nuclear weapons near the NATO border

To many analysts, Russia's nuclear capabilities serve primarily as a tool of Kremlin propaganda. Putin, in recent times, has escalated attempts to alarm the West with these threats, reflecting what some interpret as Russian desperation. This sentiment is fueled by the drawn-out conflict in Ukraine, Western support for Kyiv, and NATO's swift expansion to include Sweden and Finland. The latter has notably bolstered the Alliance's presence in the Baltic Sea region.

Some Russian officials view the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons near Finland as a counter to the country's NATO membership. Reports indicate that the Kremlin plans to form a new missile brigade equipped with Iskander-M systems within the Leningrad Military District.

Although the Iskander (known as SS-26 Stone in NATO terminology) is primarily a conventional weapon used in the Ukrainian conflict, it is a versatile missile system targeting land structures with various munitions. The Iskander-M variant stands out for its potential to be fitted with nuclear warheads. Public data suggests these missiles range from 16 to 23 feet long, with warheads capable of yielding 5 to 50 kilotons of power and a range of 248 to 310 miles.

Russia's arsenal also includes other conventional systems capable of delivering nuclear warheads, like the Soviet-era Toczka-U and the R-400 Oka. However, these offer a shorter range than the Iskander-M. There's no evidence of such systems being deployed near Finland.

Recently, on April 17, 2024, Ukrainian forces attacked a Russian radar in Mordovia vital to the nuclear warning system. This incident was perceived as a potential provocation, testing Moscow's declared boundaries for employing nuclear force.

The potential use of nuclear weapons by Russia raises questions about readiness and doctrine. According to journalist Łukasz Michalik, Russian military strategy permits nuclear responses under specific threats to national security or allied nations. This policy mirrors those of other nuclear nations, like France, providing a broad basis for propaganda and provocative stances, as seen near the Finnish border.

Russia's capability to sustain a nuclear triad of land, air, and sea delivery systems underscores its deterrence strategy. This includes strategic missile forces, strategic bomber aviation, and nuclear submarines, covering an extensive range of global targets. The Iskander-M system, representing tactical nuclear options, is less menacing but crucial for countering NATO's military capacity.

Russian propaganda capitalizes on the fear that Iskander-M systems, strategically positioned, could target several NATO capitals. Despite considerable posturing, Moscow has not justified such an extreme military response. Nonetheless, the nuclear triad remains a symbol of national security and a cornerstone of Putin's authority in the eyes of the Russian public.