Russia pivots from nuclear to missile threat, warns expert
Russia will not resort to using nuclear weapons against Ukraine, claims Roman Sviatan, a military expert and reserve colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Instead, Ukraine should prepare for missile attacks.
According to the Ukrainian agency Unian, which quotes military expert Roman Sviatan, Russia does not intend to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine because it fears a retaliatory "dirty bomb" (a bomb designed to spread radioactive material over a large area). "It is unlikely that the Oreshnik will be used," asserts Sviatan.
The Oreshnik will not be used, but they have other weapons in their arsenal
Sviatan emphasized that Russia could still conduct massive missile attacks on Ukraine. He pointed to the possibility of using missiles such as Kalibr, Iskander, or Kinzhal.
Unian reminds us that at the beginning of May 2025, Russia again threatened Ukraine with the use of the Oreshnik missile. As a result, the airspace over Kapustin Yar, where this missile was previously launched, was closed.
Unian also points out that the Russians may face difficulties in producing Oreshnik missiles. This could explain the lack of public references to this weapon for a prolonged period.
Expert Sviatan noted that using an intercontinental ballistic missile against Ukraine would be "idiotic." In his opinion, Russia used the Oreshnik only once to showcase its capabilities.
The Oreshnik missile
There are no detailed technical data on the Oreshnik missiles yet. Assuming that this technology is based on the RS-26 system, it can be inferred that the initial launch weight of the missile ranges from about 44 to 55 tons. This weapon was designed to cover distances of up to 3,728 miles. The standard equipment likely includes four warheads, each with a yield of around 0.3 megatons.
In December 2024, Ukrainians announced that fragments of the Oreshnik missile from an attack carried out in November revealed parts with serial numbers. These numbers indicated that elements of the missile were produced as far back as April 2017. This information raises valid doubts about Russian assurances regarding the modernity of the technology used in this weapon.
