Russia, North Korea bolster ties amid China's quiet nod

The closeness between Russia, North Korea, and China developed against the backdrop of the invasion of Ukraine. According to U.S. and South Korean intelligence services, the regime in Pyongyang has provided Moscow with millions of shells, and in October, it transported at least 3,000 soldiers to Russia.

Meanwhile, Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Russian dictator Vladimir Putin declared a "no limits" friendship between their nations three weeks before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Yet China claims to have a neutral stance towards this war and asserts that it is not sending lethal aid to any side of the conflict. At the same time, it has not condemned the Russian invasion and opposes sanctions imposed on Moscow.

- It is generally believed that the troop deployment is happening despite Beijing's objections, said Atkinson, an expert in international relations in East Asia. He noted that, according to this theory, it would be assumed that Xi "fears that the transfer of troops will strengthen the perception of a new 'axis of evil' and trigger a stronger reaction from the U.S. and its European and Asian allies, and that Russia is reducing Beijing's influence on North Korea and allowing it to behave more boldly, while Beijing wants to control it."

However, in his view, such an assumption is based on a misinterpretation of the power dynamics and a misunderstanding of the intentions of the leaders.

- Most observers agree that without Chinese support, Putin's war efforts would collapse, and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) would fall as a nation. Beijing is the dominant partner in this triangle, the PAP interviewee noted.

The current liberal world order is not a safe environment for any of these three regimes. Xi's number one priority is to avoid the fate of the Soviet Union. He made this clear. It is an extremely ambitious goal, Atkinson asserts.

As he added, "you can't make an omelet without breaking eggs, and making the world safe for autocracy is not like hosting a dinner party." This is a reference to a phrase popularized by pro-Stalin journalist Walter Duranty (some attribute these words to Stalin or Lenin himself) and an aphorism by Mao Zedong from 1927, in which he wrote that "a revolution is not a dinner party, it's an act of violence by which one class overthrows another," he recalls.

Atkinson admits that the authorities in Beijing, Moscow, and Pyongyang may not agree on the chosen tactics and timing for their implementation. What matters is that their fundamental goals are aligned. And even if it comes to tactics and timing, the only regime that has the means and economic power to face the West cannot be denied the right to veto. I think it is highly probable that when Putin and Kim decided on the deployment of North Korean troops, they sought Beijing's approval and received it, he indicated.

- In other words, Xi himself sat down and discussed this with his most trusted people and decided that all things considered, it's better to allow it than not, he concluded.

Does China have any influence over Russia in the context of the war, and could the decision to send North Korean troops, if made without China's knowledge, cause dissatisfaction in Beijing? In the final analysis, Atkinson emphasizes that the goal of these actions matters to the PRC as well.

We must remember why Putin wants North Korean troops: to help him not lose in Ukraine. Perhaps Xi does not like the way he wants to achieve this goal, but he shares it, Atkinson explains.

As he added, it cannot be ruled out that the PRC came up with its proposal, but Moscow and Pyongyang were already at an advanced stage of preparation. Given that Xi does not want Putin to lose, he has no choice but to agree with them and hope that their plan works, the expert summed up.

He points out that portraying communist China as a so-called good cop not only benefits them but also serves the interests of Russia and North Korea.

- The governments of countries in Europe, instead of taking action against Russia or punishing the DPRK and PRC, engage in dialogue with Beijing, expecting a dissatisfied China to appeal for the withdrawal of North Korean troops, notes the PAP interviewee.

- The problem is, of course, that the deployment of these troops further tilts the balance of the war against Ukraine and ultimately against all of Europe, and waiting for Beijing only delays a swift Western response, Atkinson noted.

In his opinion, Pyongyang's support for Moscow could have security consequences in Europe and East Asia.

The transfer of 12,000 troops at a time when Putin wants to avoid another mobilization among Russians is "very valuable" for the Kremlin, and Pyongyang is "almost certainly" going to receive something of comparable value in return—it could be missile, nuclear, submarine, or satellite technology. Putin will not give more than he must, but he must give a lot. And Pyongyang will appreciate all of it, Atkinson emphasizes.

However, Russia would not provide North Korea with direct military support if a military conflict broke out on the Korean Peninsula. According to the expert, Russia and China would not want North Korea to lose such a potential war, but all Moscow's efforts are currently consumed by the invasion of Ukraine.

However, due to technological support, the DPRK's nuclear threats against Washington or Seoul "become somewhat more credible, allowing North Korea to engage in provocations," even if its real combat potential has decreased due to supporting the Kremlin.

The expert admits that, in the current geopolitical context, Xi remains cautious about a possible invasion of Taiwan. However, if he decides that the time has come, Russia and North Korea will support Beijing, as its defeat "would be a crushing strategic setback for all three." Russia, for its part, would support Beijing "just below the threshold of engaging in warfare, but for North Korea, this could mean (a good moment to) start an invasion of South Korea," he assessed.

Importantly, Atkinson highlighted that these joint actions will not just result from these countries having strategic interests aligned with Beijing or owing China favors for received support.

- If Russia loses in Ukraine, it will be "wiped off the chessboard." But if it wins, it will be ready to check Europe, effectively forcing the U.S. to maintain its forces in Europe while simultaneously supplying Beijing with food, oil, and resources," the expert listed. "Meanwhile, North Korea, equipped with nuclear missiles developed with Russian technological help, would be a formidable opponent for South Korea, Japan, and the U.S. if it simultaneously engaged in a war with China over Taiwan," Atkinson assessed.