Russia leans on imports to sustain arms production amid shortages

Russian exports mainly consist of natural resources like oil and natural gas. Despite imposed sanctions, the world still requires them, and new western buyers have partially replaced old ones, such as China and India, which are taking advantage of the situation.

Russia also controls the transport of tungsten, which is essential for the Western arms sector, and is a significant producer of enriched uranium, which is critical as fuel for nuclear power plants.

Although Kremlin propaganda presents Russia as a self-sufficient resource powerhouse, this is untrue. One of Putin's regime's weaknesses is its dependence on external supplies of manganese, essential for the modern arms industry.

The issue, which is both a pressing yet unpublicized problem for the Kremlin, is discussed in greater detail by Yevgeny Fyodorov from the Russian service Topwar. The author notes that while Russia has only two, they are large manganese deposits.

The problem is that it cannot effectively exploit them, relying on Soviet-era methods to extract strategic resources without investing in research or development of the mining sector. Although Russian extraction accounts for about 2% of the world's manganese production, it is just a drop in the ocean of needs for the arms sector supporting the war in Ukraine.

Russia has found a way around EU sanctions. Manganese reaches it through Kazakhstan, Turkey, Iran, and the Baltic countries. Interestingly, Estonia and Latvia have long been alerting that strategic raw material reaches Russia through their ports, but as countries governed by law, they did not have the tools to block this process.

An alternative import route allows Russia to continue production, but it increases costs and, being less stable, raises the risk associated with potential supply chain disruptions. Why is manganese so important to Russia?

It is an essential element for industry, including the arms sector. It improves the mechanical properties of steel, reduces susceptibility to corrosion, and lowers the melting temperature, which aids in processing. Although its addition in armor steels is typically a fraction of a percent, it is indispensable.

Rich deposits are, however, located close to Russia. According to a report by Ukraine's State Geological and Subsoil Service, in 2019, Ukraine accounted for 10% of global manganese production. Combined with other natural resources in Ukraine, this may have been one of the unofficial reasons for the Russian invasion.

Chromium is of similar importance to manganese in Russia, as its addition to steel increases hardness and improves hardenability, heat resistance, and corrosion resistance. Russia is also forced to import 60% of the national demand, with most of the critical industrial raw materials arriving via Kazakhstan.

Moreover, Russia's currently exploited chromium deposits, along with many other resources, are already running out. In September 2024, Russia's Minister of Natural Resources, Alexander Kozlov, sounded the alarm on this issue. He noted that deposits of key minerals are already nearing depletion and can meet the demands of Russian industry for 5 to 15 years, depending on the resource.

He blamed this situation on the near-total cessation of geological research and a focus on exploiting resources dating back to the Soviet Union. This short-sighted, profit-driven policy has led to a situation where Russia has to reach for Arctic resources, increasing regional tensions and counteractions from the West.

Russia's reliance on imported resources also affects the credibility of the blackmail that Putin periodically directs toward the rest of the world. While Russia can indeed cut off supplies of resources important to the West, such as uranium, tungsten, or titanium, Kremlin propaganda consistently overlooks the fact that disrupting the global supply chain could become a double-edged sword, harmful not only to the West but - if the West responds similarly - primarily to Russia itself.