Russia intensifies underwater sabotage threats against nato infrastructure

A significant challenge for NATO is protecting underwater infrastructure in Alliance countries, including cables and pipelines. "The Russians are not only mapping lines of critical infrastructure in NATO countries but are also preparing for potential sabotage attacks," warns James Appathurai from NATO Headquarters. He adds that Russia is most active beneath the surface of the Baltic Sea.

Appathurai serves at NATO as the Acting Deputy Secretary General for Innovation, Hybrid Threats, and Cyber Defense. In Portugal, he participated in experimental exercises with Alliance countries.

"We are observing an increasing level of threats and hybrid activities against NATO countries, primarily from Russia," he said, when asked by PAP during the experimental NATO REPMUS exercises in Portugal. "This includes cyberattacks, disinformation, political interference, forced migration, threats to infrastructure, and a growing number of sabotage acts."

As he emphasized, "One significant threat is the potential sabotage of critical infrastructure of NATO countries, located on the sea bottom."

The Russians have been using the so-called underwater research program for decades to map our critical infrastructure. This program is very well-funded; the Russians attach great importance to it," he told journalists.

He added, "They map NATO countries' critical infrastructure lines and prepare for potential sabotage attacks. They have remotely controlled underwater devices that can damage underwater pipelines or cables."

This threat is not only kinetic but also cyber. He believes the body of water where Russia is most active beneath the surface is the Baltic Sea, although they are also active in the Atlantic, the North Sea, the Mediterranean Sea, and the Black Sea.

NATO's response to these actions, as he said, is to create a "critical underwater infrastructure network" at the strategic level. This involves building a system for exchanging information between NATO countries' commands, companies, Alliance countries' capitals, and NATO Headquarters.

"What we are doing now is developing tools that allow for data exchange between outer space and the sea bottom," said Appathurai, explaining that the elements of this system include sensors on the sea bottom along with cables or pipelines, underwater drones, ships and vessels, aircraft, flying drones, and satellites.

All these elements provide an enormous amount of data, which requires analysis using artificial intelligence systems. "This allows, for example, the identification of ships that have changed course unusually, docked at a suspicious port, turned off transponders, or passed in close proximity to another suspicious ship."

At the operational level, a maritime command has been established in the United Kingdom, creating a special unit. "It has direct contact with operators of critical underwater infrastructure, which includes cables and pipelines transporting gas and oil."

Appathurai flew to Portugal to participate in REPMUS exercises, annual maneuvers organized and conducted by the Portuguese Navy and NATO with the participation of foreign armed forces, universities, and companies. Representatives of NATO countries meet in Portugal to test the capability of autonomous systems to operate together and to better understand new threats in the maritime environment.

During REPMUS, not only aerial drones are being tested but also surface, underwater, and land drones. "The role of artificial intelligence in their operation is growing."

According to the exercise participants, the role of unmanned vehicles on the battlefield will grow, and NATO needs to be prepared for this, especially since Russia and China are intensively working on developing these technologies.

"According to NATO, 99 percent of the world's data is transmitted through the global network of underwater cables." Financial transactions worth $10 trillion are estimated to pass through these extensive cable networks every day. In addition to data cables, critical underwater infrastructure includes electric cables and pipelines delivering oil and gas.

"In January 2022, an underwater data transmission cable connecting Norway with its Arctic archipelago Svalbard was damaged." In October 2023, the Balticconnector gas pipeline between Finland and Estonia was found damaged. Soon after, more damage to nearby underwater cables connecting Finland and Estonia and a cable connecting Estonia and Sweden were discovered.

According to media reports citing information from the investigation, "The damage was likely caused by a ship registered in Hong Kong, which dragged its anchor along the sea bed while traversing a route during which it repeatedly docked at Russian Baltic Sea ports."