Russia gears up for major offensive in Ukraine's northeast
The American analytical organization ISW reports that Russia is amassing significant forces for a potential offensive operation against northeastern Ukraine. This preparation involves forming a northern group of forces with elements from the Leningrad Military District, expecting the Russians to target the Belgorod-Kharkiv operational direction.
7:57 AM EDT, May 6, 2024
The Institute for the Study of War, based in Washington, notes that the Russian military currently does not have sufficient forces to seize Kharkiv. Nonetheless, indications are that the Russian military's efforts are focused on launching an offensive operation against northeastern Ukraine, including Kharkiv.
Ukrainian military analyst Kostyantyn Mashovets reported on May 5th that the Russian army had mobilized approximately 55,000 soldiers within the Northern Group of Forces across the Belgorod, Kursk, and Bryansk regions. He further detailed that the Belgorod region hosts over 34,000 soldiers, with more than 11,000 in the Kursk region and over 8,800 in Bryansk.
ISW has also encountered unverified reports that the Russian military is reallocating units from the 76th and 7th VDV divisions from the Zaporizhzhia region to various new fronts. The shift in forces toward eastern Ukraine suggests a Russian strategy for extensive offensives in the area.
Mashovets highlights Russian tactics aimed at deceiving onlookers, noting the movement of soldiers and equipment from railway stations to positions within the Belgorod region.
Russians gear up for an assault in the Kursk region
Recently, Russian forces have stepped up air strikes, drone, and missile attacks along Ukraine's northeastern borders, focusing on the Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv regions. Despite the buildup, it is unlikely that the Russian Northern Group of Forces will successfully capture Kharkiv; however, there may be attempts to launch offensive maneuvers and raids into the Kharkiv and Sumy regions.
ISW anticipates that it could take several weeks for Western arms and ammunition to be delivered to Ukrainian front-line units. Once these resources are distributed, the impact of American military support on the conflict will become apparent, potentially enabling Ukrainian forces to stabilize the front and initiate counteractions.
American analysts believe that the Ukrainian military faces a daunting challenge: to make meaningful progress, it must effectively incorporate American aid into its operations, stabilize the front, counteract the expected Russian summer offensive, thwart operationally significant Russian advancements, and overcome ongoing difficulties.
