Russia flexes military muscle anew, with a hidden boost from China

Kurt Campbell, the Deputy Secretary of State for the U.S., believes that Russia has successfully rebuilt its military following significant losses during the invasion of Ukraine. Compelling evidence, courtesy of photos shared by the Frontelligence Insight portal, demonstrates that Russian forces are actively working to reconstitute their invasion capabilities.

From the desk of a senior U.S. Department of State official, Kurt Campbell comes the assertion that Russia has managed to restore its military might after enduring substantial losses in the Ukraine conflict.

"Over the past few months, we have observed that Russia has nearly fully recuperated in military terms," Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell remarked at an event hosted by the Center for a New American Security.

The truth remains that Russia is persistently fortifying its forces and striving to compensate for losses by recruiting new personnel, forming new units, and establishing additional military districts. However, reality often diverges from theoretical plans.

The Frontelligence Insight portal has meticulously tracked numerous Russian units and identified a growing issue since 2023, worsening into 2024. Armored vehicles in Vladimir Putin’s army are being substituted with civilian vehicles like vans, pickups, and other non-armored vehicles.

With insufficient capabilities, Russia cannot replace all its lost machinery with new production. Documented evidence reveals the swapping of T-72 tanks for older models like the T-62 and T-55 in at least one tank unit.

While the full extent across all units remains unknown, isolated videos of T-55 and T-62 tanks in various locales indicate a widespread issue. These models were initially produced in the 1950s and 60s.

Since the inception of the invasion, by the end of March, the tally of lost vehicles exceeded 15,000, including 2,856 tanks, 135 helicopters, 106 airplanes, and 20 ships. Replacing such vast numbers within two years is a tall order for Russia, despite the substantial reserves dating back to the USSR era still at its disposal.

However, it's important to highlight that Russia has expanded its missile arsenal considerably despite the attrition of land, sea, and air vehicles. It boasts what could be one of the world’s largest collections of tactical reconnaissance drones, along with kamikaze and bombing drones.

We must not forget that Moscow elevated its defense budget to 6 percent of its national GDP for 2024, beginning in 2022. This boost is a pivotal part of the Kremlin’s comprehensive strategy to shift its economy, especially the defense sector, onto a war footing.

Much of Russia's recovery can be attributed to support from China, North Korea, and Iran. Campbell and other officials have acknowledged China’s role in helping its ally navigate economic and military challenges over the past two years.

"We've witnessed firsthand how the People's Republic of China began to bolster the Russian defense industrial base, effectively replacing trade ties with European partners that were severed following Russia's invasion," the American official stated.

Nonetheless, fully rebuilding the army will be a lengthy process for Russia. The future structure of Russian forces in the years ahead will undoubtedly differ, heavily influenced by the war's outcome in terms of size and composition.