Russia eyes eastern Libya for new military bases amid Syria shakeup
The potential fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime could accelerate Russian plans to establish military bases in Africa, particularly in eastern Libya, as indicated by an ISW report.
11:42 AM EST, December 12, 2024
The fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria could have far-reaching geopolitical consequences in the region. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) report, Russia may quickly proceed to set up new military bases on the African continent, focusing primarily on eastern Libya.
Russian plans in Libya
If Russia loses Syria, it may target Libya as a new location for military bases. Moscow is already expanding its military facilities and building weapon storage units at the Birak and Al-Jufra air bases. In Al-Jufra, Russian mercenaries from the former Wagner Group are training forces loyal to General Khalifa Haftar, who controls eastern Libya.
General Haftar, supported by Russia, is in conflict with the UN-recognized government in western Libya, headquartered in Tripoli. Haftar and Assad were close allies, and their regimes have been accused of collaborating in drug smuggling. In one instance, Egyptian customs detained a ship in 2020 carrying four tons of hashish from Syria to Benghazi, evidencing this cooperation.
In exchange for weapons and training, Russia gains access to the port of Tobruk from Haftar. Consequently, eastern Libya has become a strategic point for Russia as it seeks to extend its influence to other African countries and displace Western influence.
Russia's presence on the northern shore of Africa could pose a threat to the European Union's energy policy. After Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the EU diversified its energy supply by importing gas from Egypt and Algeria. An increased Russian presence in Libya could disrupt these energy dependencies and undermine the peace agreement between Libya's divided regions.
The ISW report suggests that Russia may use the situation in Libya to further bolster its position in the region, which could have serious implications for political and energy stability in North Africa.
