Russia evacuates naval base in Syria amid rebel chaos

According to sources, on the morning of December 2nd, the tanker "Jelnia," crucial for maintaining Russian forces in the Mediterranean Sea, left Tartus. Along with it, other units may have left the base. The Russian naval group in Syria currently consists of five ships and one submarine. This includes two "Admiral Gorshkov" class frigates, an "Admiral Grigorovich" class frigate, a modernized "Kilo" class submarine, and two auxiliary ships.

"There is a real likelihood that the withdrawal is related to the deteriorating situation in Syria," wrote analyst James Droxford. Following the withdrawal of Russian ships, the naval base in Tartus may be abandoned, and the ships themselves, with a high probability, will be moved to the Baltic Sea—speculates Naval News. On the way, they might stop in Algeria or Libya.

However, if Russia decides to maintain the base in Tartus, it will have to send significant reinforcements there, but their relocation will take weeks.

The naval base in Tartus, located on Syria's Mediterranean coast, is a strategic facility for Russia. The Soviet Navy was stationed there from 1971, but after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the ships were withdrawn. Russian troops returned to Tartus in 2012 when Moscow decided to intervene in the Syrian civil war on President Assad's side. Before the invasion of Ukraine, Russia strengthened its forces in Tartus to counteract the presence of NATO aircraft carriers in the Mediterranean Sea.

On Tuesday, Ukrainian intelligence highlighted in its latest communication that, according to its information, the personnel of the Russian military contingent in Syria is "in a state of depression." "The government forces and military units of the aggressor country are suffering significant losses, fleeing from positions, abandoning weapons and equipment, and their retreat is chaotic," it reads.

According to intelligence, planned rotations of Russian troops in Syria have been halted, and Arabic-Russian translators are being urgently sent to the city of Hama, where fighting is ongoing—probably for the needs of officers of the Russian Armed Forces, who are trying to discipline Bashar al-Assad's troops.

It was decided to send mercenaries from so-called "private military companies" to assist in Syria.

In late November, thousands of Syrian rebels, led by the group "Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham" (HTS), stemming from Al-Qaeda, launched an offensive from the Idlib province. Within a few days, they reached Syria's second-largest city, Aleppo, and occupied its center. The rebels also pushed south towards Hama, another large city south of Aleppo, capturing dozens of other localities along the way.

The rebels released a video of their leader Abu Muhammad al-Julani, who declared that his fighters "will not rest until they reach the heart of Damascus"—the capital of Syria. In response, Assad appealed for help to his allies—Russia and Iran, who are, however, engaged in their own military conflicts with Ukraine and Israel.

The Syrian army denied the rebels' successes, announcing that it is redeploying forces and preparing to launch a counterattack with the help of Russian fighter jets. Following this, Russian airstrikes hit the city of Idlib and HTS positions in the Aleppo and Hama provinces.

On December 1st, it was announced that Russia had changed the commander of its military group in Syria. After Aleppo was captured by opposition forces, Lieutenant General Sergey Kisel was replaced. He was succeeded by Colonel General Alexander Chaiko, who previously led the failed attempt to capture Kyiv—reported pro-Russian bloggers.