Russia braces for potential missile strikes from Ukraine
"You need to pack up and take your loved ones far away," an official from the Voronezh administration in Russia said to journalists when asked about the threat of ATACMS attacks. This region, which borders Ukraine, has not been as affected by the war as the neighboring Belgorod and Kursk regions. Now, Voronezh is considered a likely target.
4:11 PM EST, November 19, 2024
Russian officials are sharing a map illustrating the range of different types of ATACMS missiles, developed by the "Wojenna Kronika" service. They are pondering how many missiles Ukraine might have received and how quickly military-related plants, airports, or bases could become targets.
On Tuesday, Ukrainian media reported a potential attack using the ATACMS systems — it was said to be on an ammunition depot near the city of Karachiv in the Bryansk region.
The independent Russian service Verstka describes the fear accompanying speculations that the Americans might have "removed the range restrictor from the missiles provided to Ukraine," which would mean that cities like Krasnodar, Rostov-on-Don, Volgodonsk, and Voronezh (with a population of 1 million) are within firing range. So far, these regions have not experienced the effects of exchanges of fire. Ukrainian long-range drones have been seen there, but they carry smaller warheads than the ATACMS missiles.
Panic in Russia. "You need to pack up and take your loved ones far away"
The U.S. administration's authorization for strikes deep within Russia has sparked the most significant reaction in the Voronezh region, reports Verstka. Local authorities fear that the target will be the Baltimor airport, which is an airbase for the Russian Air Force, as well as large local industrial enterprises engaged in the aviation and missile industries.
According to a source from the Russian portal, Baltimor "has long been a target" for Ukrainian drones, and military installations there have already been relocated. "The situation is pretty dire," he expressed in a conversation. He added that "you need to pack up and take your loved ones far away." He later expressed hope that Voronezh is well-protected by air defences and that an attack with expensive missiles "will not be profitable" for the Ukrainians.
"Ukraine certainly already has a list of targets"
"We need to take care of our nerves," and "The strikes will nonetheless have a psychological impact on those Russian citizens who have not yet encountered them. Tens of thousands of Russian civilians will be in danger," are further comments in Verstka.
"Over time, Ukrainian missile attacks will become common, and Russians will realize the consequences. Attacking and defending involve the risk of accidental civilian casualties. The Russian command knows this, but it doesn't matter, as we currently see no signs that Vladimir Putin is interested in stopping the war," comments Gen. Waldemar Skrzypczak, former commander of Poland's Land Forces, for Wirtualna Polska.
If I were in their place, I would target Russian army command centers. It guarantees chaos on the front and disrupts the supply system and organizational capabilities. In the next step, one should strike the air defense system to clear the way for long-range drones deep into Russia," continues the military expert.
According to Gen. Skrzypczak, Russia is aiming to resolve the war on the battlefield because, with the help of supplies from allies — North Korea and Iran — it managed to increase missile production. He assesses that these capabilities are still growing.
Therefore, the Russians are not considering any option other than escalating the war and ultimately forcing Ukraine to capitulate, the general believes.
Tension in Russia. Ukrainians have operational freedom
On November 17, the administration of President Joe Biden for the first time authorized Ukraine to conduct attacks on Russian territory using American long-range ATACMS missiles. The governments of France and the United Kingdom issued similar permissions for Storm Shadow missiles.
ATACMS are operational, tactical ballistic missiles with a maximum range of about 186 miles. They are noticeably lighter than the Russian Iskander, but functionally its equivalent, characterized by high accuracy and a powerful warhead, military experts describe. Ukraine has already used them to target airports in Crimea and the Crimean Bridge (not officially recognized as Russian territory).
Storm Shadow is a long-range cruise missile produced by the European company MBDA, with a maximum range of about 348 miles. They can be launched from adapted Soviet bombers and Su-24s, but they can also be carried by F-16 fighters provided to Ukraine. In May 2023, the media reported that the United Kingdom agreed to deliver Storm Shadow to Ukraine under the condition that the Ukrainian Armed Forces would not use them for attacks on targets within Russian territory. In September 2023, these missiles were used to destroy the headquarters of the Russian Navy in Sevastopol, Crimea.
