Russia aims for massive military expansion amid ongoing challenges
The Russian Defense Minister, Sergey Shoigu, has unveiled plans to form two new all-army armies, encompassing 14 divisions and 16 brigades. This move marks a significant shift in the Russian military strategy. However, the question arises: Can Russia manage such an ambitious reform?
11:29 AM EDT, March 31, 2024
Observers have noted that not everything is progressing as expected, prompting modifications based on wartime lessons. The initial phase of reform began in the fall of 2022, aiming to bolster army personnel and initiate regular reserve training.
In an effort to strengthen their military capabilities, authorities plan to mobilize an additional 500,000 conscripts and increase the maximum age for military conscription from 27 to 30 years. This adjustment has notably improved the army's manpower situation.
Yet, faced with escalating losses, it became apparent that the size of the army was still inadequate. Another reform was put forward to further increase personnel numbers, setting a target of 1.5 million soldiers and elevating the minimum conscription age from 18 to 21.
The Kremlin has rightly concluded that the current army size is insufficient to ensure the vast nation's security. With half a million soldiers engaged in Ukraine, a mere 600,000 remain to protect the state. This has significantly depleted forces in crucial regions like the Caucasus and the Far East, increasing vulnerability to border incidents, particularly with China. Expansion of the army seems to be Russia's only viable solution.
The grand expansion of the Russian army
Shoigu's declaration represents the next phase in a major enlargement of the Armed Forces. However, it remains unclear how the ministry will fund the construction of additional brigades and the necessary equipment, especially considering that the basic gear for a single soldier costs around $30,000. The logistical challenges are daunting, particularly in equipping units with vehicles.
The absence of a mechanized contingent in the recent May parade, notably on Red Square where not a single tank was displayed, underscores these challenges. Yet, vehicles bearing the Georgian ribbon, a symbol traditionally seen on parade vehicles, have been observed at the front lines.
To date, Russia has lost approximately 30% of its total tank reserves from before the war, along with about 50% of its front-line vehicles. Despite ramped-up production, it barely compensates for the losses at the front.
Ministry records indicate that "The Ground Forces were equipped with a total of 1,530 new and modernized tanks" within a year, plus more than 2,200 infantry fighting vehicles and wheeled transporters. Over two years of conflict, between 4,500 and 8,000 vehicles of these types have been lost. The industry has also delivered over 12,000 other vehicles, including trucks, engineering gear, and SUVs, with 1,400 being armored vehicles like the Tigr.
Vehicles tagged as "modernized" often come from deep reserves, refurbished after sustaining damage at the front. Their technical condition is generally poor, and despite upgrades, they still lack advanced electronic equipment and fire control systems. Previously sourced from Germany and France, these components are now being procured from Belarus.
Increased funding for military development
Despite production shortfalls, TASS news agency reports indicate that Rostec's defense conglomerate has increased tank production sevenfold last year, with infantry fighting vehicles and wheeled transporters production up by 4.5 times. These figures are expected to climb as the industry shifts to a war footing.
Defense spending has surged by 36% in 2023 compared to the previous year, with Russia allocating over 6% of its GDP to defense—constituting more than 32% of the state budget. This level of expenditure hasn't been seen since the 1970s arms race.
Next year, the Kremlin plans to spend $127 billion on army modernization, new defense factories, and weapons production. For context, Poland has allocated $29.5 billion for its entire Ministry of National Defense budget this year. Yet, even this substantial investment might not fully satisfy the army's needs. Shoigu has announced that defense funding in 2023 will see a nearly 1.5-fold increase, which is expected to meet 97% of the equipment requirements of the Russian army.
The rebuilding and restructuring of the army, especially considering the current losses in Ukraine, could take several years. Shoigu's projections for establishing two all-army armies are concerning. For the time being, these units will rely on vehicles coming out of demobilization. Nevertheless, the urgency to expand military forces remains, particularly as the Kremlin does not conceal its ambitions and intentions towards the Baltic states and Poland.
