Rising crime wave in Russia as returning soldiers shock communities

A wave of crimes is on the rise in Russia as soldiers return home, Bloomberg reports. The data, however, do not include convicts who joined the so-called Wagner Group, of which there are tens of thousands.

As Bloomberg describes, Russia sent so many people to the front that the crime rate in the country dropped. Now, however, soldiers are returning home, and Russians are recording an increasing number of crimes.

According to Bloomberg, citing data from the Supreme Court of Russia, crimes committed by soldiers (but not those on the front line) increased by more than 20% in 2023. Although their number is still "small," and many soldiers do not commit offenses, the number of violent acts, thefts, and drug-related crimes are rising.

However, the data do not include crimes committed by thousands of convicts. It's important to recall that they were released from prisons to join a program founded by the late Yevgeny Prigozhin. Those who survived six months on the front could receive a pardon from President Vladimir Putin and return to Russia as free men.

As sociologist Iskender Yasaveev explained in an interview with Bloomberg, they are treated horribly on the front. "The experience they return with is a trauma that will manifest itself for decades," he argues.

According to Bloomberg, the return of prisoners who fought for Wagner provides an early picture of what might happen when hundreds of thousands of men return from the front to civilian life. The agency notes that while minor crimes have decreased, the number of murders and sexual offenses, especially against children, has not reduced in the past two years.

According to Bloomberg's calculations based on Supreme Court data, the number of assaults on minors increased by 62% compared to the pre-war period. Meanwhile, the number of crimes involving military personnel quadrupled - to 4,409 in 2023, compared to 2021.

Bloomberg describes that the return of Wagner recruits to Russia has shocked city and village residents. They discover that men they thought were serving long prison sentences are living among them again. Among those pardoned were people convicted of murder and even cannibalism.

The agency adds that according to statements from Prigozhin, over 32,000 convicts were supposed to have returned to Russia after being recruited for the war. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov referred to this in November 2023, claiming that criminals pardoned by Putin "atone with their blood for their crime on the battlefield." In March this year, however, the Kremlin quietly revoked the regulations granting the right to pardon after six months of service.

According to calculations by Alex Isakov, an economist at Bloomberg Economics, the wave of crime associated with returning soldiers could cost Russia up to 0.6% of GDP. The state will have to bear social care and security expenses, especially for the police.

However, in some areas of life, crime in Russia decreased after men were sent to the front. "Economic crimes such as theft and robbery, which are associated with poverty, have decreased because the war has poured money into the poorest segments of society," sociologist and crime researcher Ekaterina Khodzhaeva said in an interview with Bloomberg.

According to the agency, Russian courts handled nearly 62,000 fewer cases last year compared to 2021, and the number of convictions fell by 2%. Significantly, the number of police officers in many regions also dropped. This means there may have been fewer officers available to detect crimes.