Record Russian casualties hint at possible defeat in Ukraine by 2024, says Princeton analyst
According to the official data that Ukrainian armed forces release daily, in November and December, around 1000 Russian soldiers were dying daily at the frontline. This is a record high since the onset of the war, and the startling rate of losses continues. Russia has already reported losing over 360 thousand soldiers, marking a bleak prospect.
Analyst Steven Kopits suggests that a breakthrough might occur within Russia if such high casualties continue. The ongoing war, nearly two years in the making, could even end this year if Russians lose patience.
Steven Kopits, an American analyst originating from Hungary who works for Princeton Policy Blog, provides arguments to support his predictions. According to the available data regarding the losses, the Ukrainian-Russian war is already one of the deadliest conflicts in Russian history. Over 360 thousand people have been counted as lost from Moscow's side.
Only World War I, II, and the Crimean War (1853-1856) resulted in more casualties. During the Crimean War, the Russian Empire lost 450 thousand soldiers, significantly affecting Russian society. The current war in Ukraine might even surpass this toll if the present rate of losses carries into the spring.
Kopits argues that vast human losses will inevitably affect Russia's social landscape. The high casualty rate on the aggressor's side shapes this war stage, serving as a crucial factor. It's not just a number but a collection of individual human tragedies causing fear and resistance in Russia and other regions, especially regarding potential new recruitments.
The death toll in battle is the "crucial factor" influencing societal readiness to sustain the conflict. Kopits claims that Putin underestimates this, similar to the Tsarist authorities’ approach during World War I. Back then, the changes leading to the Bolshevik revolution and the eventual fall of the Tsar were unexpected.
The Ukrainians will still have to fight but can count on solid support from the USA and Europe. Kopits describes the ongoing war as a "serious European conflict requiring significant determination and commitment".
Could the Russian people eventually revolt against Putin's decisions? Surveys indicate growing war weariness and concerns over soldier deaths. Kopits also believes that social tolerance for the conflict is decreasing, emphasizing that the Russians do not feel directly threatened since it's not a war that endangers their country's future or existence. This perception matters.
"Russia's Achilles' heel is exactly the insignificant nature of the conflict," - experts opine, highlighting that Moscow can stop the conflict anytime. "Saint Petersburg isn't besieged, Moscow hasn't been plundered, there isn't a life or death struggle in Russia," Kopits points out. Considering these facts, coping with losing 360 thousand compatriots could pose a challenge for Putin.
If the current rate persists, Russian losses could reach 650,000 by the end of 2024. In 2025, we might be looking at one million killed in action.
