Putin's new playing field. Alleged election interference stirs discontent in Serbia amidst economic turmoil

There is increasing social discontent in the country due to the economic conditions and exhaustion from the extended tenure of President Aleksandar Vučić and his Serbian Progressive Party (SNS). The pro-western opposition is attempting to capitalize on this discontent. For the first time, they are unified as one bloc under the slogan referencing the countrywide protests: "Serbia against violence" ("Srbija protiv nasilja").

Despite strong ties to Russia, the Serbian president is also seen by the EU as a guarantor of the country's pro-western course. In essence, Serbia is balancing various international alliances, but the proximity to Russia is particularly notable. This closeness is not surprising given the strong business ties with the Kremlin.

Gas imports from Russia constitute 81 percent of Serbia's total supply. This gas primarily flows via the underwater extension of the TurkStream pipeline, available at below-market rates. Gazprom is the sole supplier of natural gas and the primary owner of the pipelines delivering Russian gas to Serbia. Additionally, a Russian consortium division co-owns the Serbian gas storage facility Banatski Dvor.

Given this scenario, it's plausible that Putin is aiming for gains of his own, especially considering the current discontent among the Serbs.

It should be noted that soaring inflation, among the highest in Europe in 2023, is affecting society. Compared to other Balkan states, its decline is significantly slower. In March, the Consumer Price Index reached 16.2 percent, with an estimated annual rate of about 12 percent in 2023. The prices of food, electricity, and gas for households are rapidly increasing, placing a burden on the less affluent parts of society.

"The influx of Russian immigrants has significantly pushed up real estate prices and rental rates in major cities like Belgrade. In tandem with the increase in service prices, living conditions have severely deteriorated," explains Marta Szpala in her OSW analysis.

Despite these conditions, as reported by Deutsche Welle, Serbia remains one of Russia's closest European allies. "To maintain this alliance, Moscow is deeply involved in the Serbian election campaign, spreading propaganda and fabrication that intimidates the EU and the West," we learn.

According to "DW", the function of disinformation was made clear during the inauguration of a new gas pipeline from Bulgaria to Serbia. This pipeline, funded mostly by the European Union, will transport gas from Azerbaijan from next year. In response, Serbian media marginally mentioned this aid, and obscured the EU representative at the opening ceremony via press photos.

Russia is reportedly doing all in its power to fortify Serbia’s ties to itself, backing President Vučić significantly through state-owned media. The extent and blatancy of this assistance during the election campaign can be gleaned from an article in the Belgrade newspaper "Informer", generally considered a mouthpiece for the president. The article accuses foreign embassies and philanthropist George Soros of backing the opposition, thereby demonizing the president's political adversaries. This accusation was made by Russia Today (RT), as reported by "DW".

Also, as stated by "DW", Russia presents itself as a legitimate alternative to the West in the Serbian election campaign.

"The Western NATO lords are launching a complete offensive, demanding Serbia to capitulate," wrote Sputnik Serbia, a pro-Russian outlet, a few days ago. This outlet claims that numerous Serbian portals are blindly replicating the false information.

Russian and Serbian media consistently accuse Germany of intending to instigate a coup in Serbia. When German FM Annalena Baerbock criticized the nationalistic tone of the Serbian election campaign, she was accused of "blatant interference" in the elections, as reported by "Deutsche Welle".

"Within the country, the Russian perspective is seen as entirely valid and acceptable. This viewpoint is supported by a media-created and -maintained virtual reality. However, in truth, Serbia is more closely tied to the West than to Russia. Two-thirds of trade is conducted with the EU, which also provides most foreign investments. The idea of working or studying in Russia is unthinkable for most Serbians," concludes "Deutsche Welle".