Putin's new nuclear doctrine aims to deter West's Ukraine support
The revised nuclear doctrine of Russia lowers the declared threshold for using nuclear weapons, aiming to deter the West from further increasing support for Ukraine, says Artur Kacprzyk, a nuclear deterrence analyst.
7:51 PM EST, November 19, 2024
The new version of the doctrine, signed by President Vladimir Putin, introduces additional situations in which Moscow reserves the right to use nuclear weapons.
The main reason for the change in doctrine is the desire to deter the West from further increasing support for Ukraine, explains Kacprzyk.
The analyst notes that Putin's mere signing of the doctrine is not surprising, as he announced most of these changes as early as September 25. This moment seems non-random, as it occurred less than two days after media reports about the U.S. approving Ukraine's long-range missile attacks in some parts of Russia.
Russia most likely wants to show that it is reacting and to increase pressure on the U.S. to reverse its decision, or at least not further ease restrictions on missile strikes, the expert assesses.
The key changes in the doctrine concern lowering the declared threshold for using nuclear weapons. In the previous version, Russia declared the possibility of using nuclear weapons in response to a conventional attack "threatening the existence of the state." Now, it talks about responding to a conventional attack "posing a critical threat to sovereignty and territorial integrity."
The new doctrine also introduces the possibility of a nuclear response to a conventional attack on Belarus.
The analyst predicts that if Russia decides on further actions, it may be "below the threshold of open aggression against NATO and other than the use of nuclear weapons." This could include "intensifying acts of sabotage against Western countries, aggressive actions near NATO reconnaissance planes, or further nuclear threats."
Kacprzyk reminds us that Russia did not decide to escalate when Ukraine conducted operations on Russian territory, such as entering parts of the Kursk Oblast or drone attacks deep in the country.
The expert points out that heightening fears about the use of nuclear weapons is part of attempts to build a negotiating position on Ukraine before Donald Trump takes power in the U.S.
