Putin's failure in Ukraine: Europe braces for Trump's impact

Carmen Claudin, an expert on Russia, Ukraine, and the post-Soviet space at CIDOB in Barcelona, believes that Russia has not achieved its main goal, which was the annihilation of Ukraine. "For the time being, there is no talk of Ukraine's defeat," she emphasized in her conversation with PAP. Despite the potential loss of some territory, the Ukrainian state will remain free and sovereign, which essentially means Moscow's defeat "no matter how much Putin may portray it as a victory."

In Claudin's view, the lack of security for Ukraine poses a threat to all of Europe, especially Eastern Europe. She points out that the war situation could change with Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential elections.

Trump's unpredictability could lead him to pursue a different policy than the one he has advocated so far. However, Europe must prepare to counteract a policy that may be very beneficial to Russian interests, stated the CIDOB expert, as quoted by PAP.

In her opinion, Europe needs to define a more assertive strategy. The continent may face a withdrawal of American support for Kyiv, which would necessitate greater economic and military effort. The expert also emphasized the need for a deep change in European political culture, which currently focuses on building peace rather than on defense against external aggression.

Claudin believes that Trump's policy will not accelerate the end of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict; instead, it may lead to its freezing. "Trump, of course, would present it as peace," she stated, adding another falsehood to his long list of parallel realities in her conversation with PAP.

She suggested that in such a situation, Europeans should push for an accelerated admission of Ukraine to NATO as the only serious security agreement to counteract the illegal annexation of its territories.

Ukraine will remain threatened until a just peace is achieved, which means at least prosecuting Russian war crimes, added Claudin.