Putin's costly gamble: Russia faces economic and military strain

The war in Ukraine, which will enter its fourth year in February 2025, has imposed immense costs on Moscow. The Pentagon estimated this February that these costs amounted to $211 billion. On November 1, the Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces reported that over 696,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded.​ Dr. Bryc points out that non-ethnic Russians are the first to be sent to the front lines. Citing a BBC report, the expert notes that among the casualties are primarily Tuvans, Buryats, Nenets, and residents of Altai and Zabaykalsky.

At the same time, in demographic terms, the population of the Russian Federation has gained 4.5 million "new citizens," as this is the number of ballots issued by the Central Election Commission in the so-called new territories, meaning the four occupied regions of eastern Ukraine — said the expert in an interview with PAP.

The expert emphasizes that Russia is no longer perceived as the "East of the West" and now sees itself as the "North of Asia" or even an "economically diminished junior partner of China." Since 2022, the Kremlin has led the country into economic dependence on Beijing, transforming it into a raw material and assembly base for Chinese industry.

There has also been a "yuanization" of trade—where the Chinese currency has replaced the dollar and euro in trade exchanges. By reselling its most valuable resources to China and India, Russia allows itself to be cannibalized, while Beijing or Delhi benefit from a cheap gas station, explains Dr. Bryc.

From the Kremlin's perspective, the gain is the "gathering of Russian lands," meaning the annexation of 18% of Ukrainian territory. If Putin manages to secure a ceasefire, he will maintain a land connection with occupied Crimea and might even seek formal recognition of the territorial gains.

Today, we know that Russian planners assumed as early as 2014 that by 2025, Russia would be able to destabilize Ukraine, and by 2050, even disintegrate it or lead to the "termination of the state." Putin's plans are far-reaching and will not be altered by any ceasefire — said Dr. Bryc in an interview with PAP.

Regarding social sentiments in Russia, the political scientist notes that just three months after the invasion, the country's citizens rationalized the aggression against their neighbor. Support for Putin's policy remains at 87%. According to Russian Field, almost half of Russians favor transitioning to peace negotiations. Interestingly, those who want to stop the war are mostly people with low incomes rather than ultra patriots from pro-Kremlin circles, emphasizes Dr. Bryc.

The expert predicts that Russia will not abandon its revisionist and neo-imperial policies nor its militarization and ideological support rooted in Russian conservatism. The stake is a change in the global order and the end of the so-called "American century." Russians believe in an upcoming major shift, where the "global minority," meaning the West, will be replaced by the "global majority" led by China and Russia.

According to Dr. Bryc, any potential ceasefire in 2025 will be just an "operational pause." This will allow Russia to rebuild its forces and prepare for a final confrontation with the West in the next two, possibly five, years.

A temporary ceasefire will not cause the Kremlin to abandon its plans. It will only refrain when forced to do so by force — summarizes Dr. Agnieszka Bryc, quoted by PAP.