Putin's ambitious move in Kursk: Eyes on Sumy, Ukraine
The leader of Russia, Vladimir Putin, met with officials in the Kursk region in the western part of his country, presumably to discuss plans to seize the Sumy region in northern Ukraine, according to the latest report by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russia's territorial ambitions go beyond the areas it has already illegally occupied or annexed. The ISW suggests that President Putin may seek to further occupy the Sumy region in an effort to pressure Ukraine into conceding part of this territory during future peace negotiations.
During a meeting on May 20, the head of the Glushkovsky district administration in the Kursk region, Pavel Zolotaryov, asked Putin to create a buffer zone in the Sumy region, which would include "at least the city of Sumy." The acting governor of the region, Aleksandr Khinshtein, later announced on Telegram that his grandfather came from the Sumy region, indicating that "this land is not foreign to (him)."
Sumy lies about 15 miles from the border with Russia, and a buffer zone of such depth would prevent Ukrainian forces from attacking Russian territory with artillery and using tactical drones.
According to the ISW, the Kremlin likely arranged the meeting on May 20 to present Putin as an effective and engaged leader who responds to the demands of his subordinates.
Will Russia occupy Sumy? "Unlikely"
Although the Russian authorities announced on April 26 that they had regained the entire Kursk region, the ISW observed reports that Ukrainian forces still maintain limited positions in the region and that fighting continues. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported on May 21 that Ukrainian forces are continuing active combat operations there.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assesses that it is highly unlikely Russian forces will be able to occupy Sumy in the near or foreseeable future. This judgment is based on Russia's demonstrated inability to rapidly capture even significantly smaller towns over the past three years.
The think tank emphasized that only limited Russian units are operating toward Sumy, which are not enough to capture the city, which had a pre-war population of 256,000. ISW added that the last time Russian forces captured a city with a population of over 100,000 was in July 2022, and that was Lysychansk in the Luhansk region.
