Putin's African alliances pose new threat to Western influence

Experts have no doubt that Vladimir Putin is buying support in Africa to counterbalance the loss of favor from the West and its markets. It appears that the plan to build support in the western part of the continent has reached another phase, posing a particular problem for France.

Military leaders of three West African countries—Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso—signed a treaty on Sunday in Niamey for increased integration and the formation of the Confederation of Sahel States (AES), which has about 72 million inhabitants.

This is another step towards separating countries ruled by dictators from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). In January, all three countries accused it of being manipulated by France, their former colonial master. In September of last year, they also signed a mutual defense pact.

The ruler of Niger, General Abdourahamane Tchiani, told his military colleagues from Burkina Faso and Mali that his nation "has irrevocably turned away from ECOWAS." He added, "AES is the only effective subregional group in fighting terrorism."

Africa has long been a continent where Western, Russian, and Chinese influences clash. The Russian dictator began "building support" in countries such as the Sahel by sending mercenaries from the then-existing Wagner Group. After the death of its leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, the mercenaries stayed, forming the African Corps.

In countries favored by Wagner operatives, the authorities successively began taking over pro-Russian forces, as evidenced by photos of Russian flags in the hands of new regime supporters.

The first coup in AES countries took place in Mali in 2020. A year later, another coup occurred, bringing Colonel Assimi Goita to power. In Burkina Faso, the military removed President Roch Kabore from office in January 2022. He was replaced by Lieutenant Colonel Paul-Henri Damiba, who was himself overthrown by Captain Ibrahim Traore in October of the same year. Niger joined this group in July 2023, ousting pro-Western President Mohamed Bazoum, with Tchiani taking his role.

The rivalry of powers is often bloody for Africans themselves, a situation exacerbated by Russia, which portrays itself as a partner in contrast to Western colonizers. Putin also tries to present himself as a savior, promising free food supplies while the world is alarmed that the Kremlin is exacerbating global hunger issues by blocking the export of Ukrainian grains, which also flooded the Polish market.

Last weekend, citizen groups in Mali accused the Russians of ethnic cleansing against the Tuareg community in the northern part of the country. In June, the authorities of the Central African Republic accused Russians of killing civilians," writes the Polish Press Agency.

Experts pointed out that Russia is too economically weak to compete on the continent with Western, especially Chinese, direct investments. However, the Putin regime found its way.

"Russia arms African regimes and sends Wagner Group mercenaries to unstable regions. Countries like Uganda or Algeria import more than 70% of their military equipment from Russia. Predicting changes on this front will be tricky," assessed Jakub Rybacki from the Polish Economic Institute in an interview with money.pl in July 2023.

"Moscow needs votes on the international stage, and African leaders hold the 'mathematical strength' that Putin wants to utilize in his politics," emphasized Dr. Błażej Popławski from the Polish Society of African Studies in an interview with money.pl in July 2023, as we wrote about Putin's growing influence in Africa.

However, political support is not the only relevant factor. Africa has significant energy resource reserves—coal, oil, and gas. According to OPEC data, it already produces around 8,300 billion cubic feet of natural gas annually, and according to forecasts, in less than two decades, the continent’s countries could produce even 16,500 billion cubic feet of gas annually.

In other words, Africa has strong arguments to conduct business on different, "more equal" terms with, for example, Europe, which has decided to abandon Russian energy resources. It is also worth mentioning that the coup in Niger forced France to look for another source of uranium for its nuclear power plants.

And that's not the end. Africa also has rare earth metals like cobalt and lithium. African countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo and Namibia have some of the largest deposits. The race is also on for access to iron ore, gold, and diamonds. Russia is also eyeing access to deposits of diamonds, platinum, gold, cobalt, and bauxite.