Putin vows no ceasefire until Ukraine's surrender

During his meeting with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, Vladimir Putin took the opportunity to express his position on ceasefire negotiations. Putin emphasized his pursuit of the "ultimate" end to the conflict, which, according to analysts from the Institute for the Study of War, means the destruction of Ukrainian statehood.

Experts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) analyzed Putin's statements during Orban's visit and at the press conference during talks at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).

They noted an apparent contradiction between Putin's attempts to blame the (non-existent) negotiations on the West and Ukraine and his simultaneous rejection of any possibility of a ceasefire agreement.

ISW analysts pointed out that, according to Putin, any agreement between Russia and Ukraine should not lead to a ceasefire, as it would allow Ukraine to regroup and rearm. Instead, Russia aims for a "total" and "final" end to the conflict.

Putin, as his statements and demands indicate, desires the destruction of Ukrainian statehood and identity. He demands the annexation of a significant portion of Ukraine's territory and population into Russia, as well as the capitulation of the Ukrainian armed forces.

During the press conference with Orban, Putin called for Ukraine's complete withdrawal from the "Donbas and Novorossiya" as a condition for ending the war. However, ISW noted that the borders of the imaginary "Novorossiya" are unclear, and Putin and the Kremlin have repeatedly suggested that their goal is territorial conquest that goes beyond the boundaries of the four illegally annexed regions.

Putin also called for the "irreversible" "demilitarization" of Ukraine as a precondition for negotiations. This means demanding that Ukraine give up its ability to resist Russian aggression. ISW assessed that Putin would almost certainly use Ukraine's capitulation to achieve his secondary goal of overthrowing Ukraine's democratically elected government and replacing it with a pro-Russian government and political system.

ISW believes that Ukrainian counteroffensive operations to liberate operationally significant territory are the most prudent course of action. Putin's rejection of any ceasefire idea indicates that he is increasingly confident in his assessment that Russia can pursue victory by making slow progress in Ukraine, outlasting Western support for Ukraine, and winning a war of attrition.

Putin is convinced of Russia's ability to win a prolonged war of attrition, based on the assessment that Ukraine cannot conduct operationally significant counteroffensive operations.

On July 5, the Russian opposition portal Meduza reported obtaining a Kremlin document instructing pro-Kremlin and Russian state media to publicize Putin's statements from July 4.

In these statements, Putin blamed the West and Ukraine for hindering peace negotiations and portrayed Russia as a willing and good-faith negotiator. Russian state media were to present Putin's demands for Ukraine's capitulation as logical and realistic and to depict Ukraine and the West as unreliable and deceptive.

ISW stated that Putin's statements during Orban's visit and the SCO summit meetings would likely complicate the Kremlin's apparent ongoing efforts to convince a selected audience that Russia remains interested in negotiations.