Putin holds firm ahead of crucial trump call on Ukraine

Russian leader Vladimir Putin believes he has the advantage before Monday's phone call with Donald Trump, while European leaders are trying to prevent the U.S. president from hastily reaching an agreement on Ukraine, Bloomberg assesses.

Putin is convinced his forces will be able to break through the Ukrainian defensive positions by the end of the year and take full control of the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions, to which Russia claims rights, said a person familiar with the Russian leader's thinking, who requested anonymity regarding private conversations.

This means that Putin is unlikely to offer Trump any significant concessions during the conversation, and European leaders fear that the American president might still try to push for an agreement.

Bloomberg reminds us that Trump is pressing for a quick end to Russia's war against Ukraine, which has already entered its fourth year, and he believes he will be able to reach an agreement in a direct conversation with Putin.

The Russian leader, for his part, is giving no signals that he is ready to end the fighting, as his forces are slowly advancing. This raises concerns in Kyiv and European capitals that Ukraine might be forced to cede additional territories.

Speaking at a conference in Tallinn on Sunday, Michael Kofman of the Carnegie Endowment noted that, given the present stage of the war, Russia has little incentive to support a ceasefire.

According to Bloomberg, there is a growing belief that American efforts to enforce a ceasefire are reaching a climax, and officials in Europe are uncertain whether Trump will increase pressure on Russia or simply move on to the next challenge if these efforts fail. Trump promised to inform Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and some NATO allies about the results of the conversation with Putin.

Despite all the talks about ending the fighting, Putin is prepared for a prolonged war if necessary to achieve his goals and is not concerned about the prospect of further U.S. sanctions, Bloomberg writes, citing two people close to the Kremlin.

Sergei Markov, a political consultant with close connections to the Kremlin, stated that while Trump wants Putin to agree to a truce, the Russian leader is strongly against it. However, according to Markov, Putin is also unwilling to end the dialogue entirely. Instead, he is trying to navigate a path where negotiations persist in parallel with ongoing military operations.