Putin doubles down on creeping advances as Ukraine war drags on

A prolonged war is likely to encourage Putin to set new territorial goals clearly, provided he assesses that Ukrainian forces are unable to either stop his advance or conduct significant counteroffensives, according to the latest analysis from the Institute for the Study of War.

Putin has formulated his theory of victory, which assumes that Russian forces will be able to continue a gradual, creeping advance indefinitely, preventing Ukraine from carrying out successful, operationally significant counteroffensives. He believes this will allow him to win a war of attrition.

Analysts assess that the Russian military command prioritizes consistent offensive operations that will allow them to achieve gradual tactical gains.

Putin and the Russian military command likely see creeping offensive operations as a more effective method of achieving goals in Ukraine than larger, more mobile offensives, according to the report.

A prolonged war favors Putin's calculations, as he likely assesses that Russia will be able to hold any occupied territory and that Russian forces will have a better chance of achieving the currently set territorial goals the longer the war lasts, according to ISW experts.

The Kremlin has deliberately set no limits on its objectives for conquering Ukraine and has repeatedly suggested that areas outside the Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk regions are part of Russia.