Pope Francis battles pneumonia as media eyes potential successors

The 88-year-old Pope Francis was admitted to the Gemelli Hospital in Rome on February 14th after experiencing several days of breathing difficulties. He was diagnosed with bilateral pneumonia. Tests also revealed mild initial kidney failure, which is currently "under control."

The Vatican has been reporting for several days that Pope Francis's condition is "critical," although he remains conscious and aware. The threat to his health is not yet over.

Pope Francis, who has headed the Catholic Church since March 2013, has suffered from recurring health problems over the past two years. In his youth, he contracted pleurisy, and part of one lung was removed—making him particularly susceptible to lung infections.

Pope Francis's condition and his age have only intensified speculation about who could succeed him. Many favorites appear in the media, but only a few have a real chance of becoming the 267th successor of St. Peter.

In recent days, the media has been buzzing with the name Cardinal Fridolin Ambongbo Besungu, Archbishop of Kinshasa, the capital of the Democratic Republic of Congo. This 65-year-old cleric was appointed a cardinal by Pope Francis in 2019 and has since established a strong position within the Church.

He is considered the informal leader of the African Church. He gained international recognition for his open criticism of the Vatican document "Fiducia supplicans," which, under certain conditions, allowed the blessing of homosexual couples. Besungu argued that such "blessings cannot be given in Africa without causing a scandal."

His African heritage could work in his favor—the Church is thriving in Africa. Additionally, Besungu is a strong advocate of synods and dialogue within the Church, areas Pope Francis has emphasized in recent years.

Against the Archbishop of Kinshasa is his age—at 65, he is relatively young by cardinal college standards. Cardinals tend to elect older Popes to avoid lengthy pontificates. His election would certainly signal a conservative shift in the Church and, at least partially, a return to the policies of John Paul II. His disadvantage might be that lately, there has been too much focus on him. A well-known Vatican saying goes: 'He who enters the conclave as Pope, leaves as a cardinal.'

Another African candidate often mentioned is Guinean cleric Cardinal Robert Sarah. The retired prefect of the Congregation for Divine Worship and the Discipline of the Sacraments, at 79 years old (turning 80 in June), is considered one of the Church's most well-known conservatives. His books sell in the thousands worldwide.

In his views, Cardinal Sarah is a staunch opponent of the ordination of women, the blessing of homosexual couples, the abolition of priestly celibacy, and giving communion to those in subsequent unions. In the conclave, his strong views may serve as both an asset and a drawback—it’s unlikely that conservatives could garner broad support for such a distinctive candidate.

The Italians will form a strong faction in the conclave. Among the electors are as many as 18 clerics from this country. It's rather certain that after a 47-year hiatus, they will strive to place one of their own in the Papal office.

Among them, the most well-known name appears to be Cardinal Matteo Zuppi of Bologna, head of the Italian episcopate since last year. Pope Francis entrusted him with the mission of peace mediation between Ukraine and Russia.

Additionally, Zuppi is a member of the Italian community of Sant'Egidio, which focuses on ecumenism and helping the poor. This group, whose members have recently begun to rise quickly in the Vatican, is influencing more and more matters. Its founder is Italian historian Andrea Riccardi.

Zuppi's election would signify a continuation of Pope Francis's line in a somewhat softened form, which would be acceptable to many cardinals in the conclave.

Among other Italian candidates mentioned is Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the current Vatican Secretary of State. As both a diplomat and bureaucrat, he enjoys great trust from Pope Francis. Parolin is calm and more conservative than Pope Francis and would represent a moderate continuation of his line. His main flaw is his lack of substantial experience as a cardinal, having spent most of his life working in various diplomatic roles within the Vatican.

A "middle" candidate among the Italians might be Cardinal Fernando Filoni, the grand master of a knightly order. Having spent most of his life in Vatican diplomacy, he has extensive experience gathered from various global discussions. If the cardinals wanted to vote "to wait and see," he seems like an ideal candidate. At 79, he is not controversial. However, the downside might be his lack of experience in diocesan management and pastoral work.

The idea of a Pope from Asia is increasingly appearing in media speculation. The Church on this continent is growing very dynamically, which boosts the significance of hierarchs from this part of the world. In his cardinal appointments, Pope Francis did not overlook this direction—21 cardinals from Asia have the right to elect a Pope.

Among them, the most prominent name is Cardinal Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle from the Philippines, Vatican prefect of the Dicastery for Evangelization. This 68-year-old was already mentioned among the favorites at the last conclave. He is known for his pastoral zeal, good rapport with the faithful, and spontaneity. After Pope Francis's election, he had a brilliant career in the Vatican, becoming the prefect of an important dicastery.

Well-educated and fluent in several languages, he easily connects with others. He is considered more of a liberal but tries to maintain balance in his statements. However, his tenure at Caritas Internationalis, which he led in 2015, casts a shadow over his candidacy. His second term was cut short when he was suddenly dismissed by Pope Francis in 2022 amid rumors of unclear financial operations within the organization.

A more moderate candidate from this part of the world is the Metropolitan of Colombo, Cardinal Malcolm Ranjith of Sri Lanka. A polyglot with broad experience as a bishop, he is also well-versed in Vatican structures and diplomatic affairs.

On the most sensitive Church topics, he speaks conservatively. He is also a loyal bishop to Pope Francis, sharing a deep concern for the poor. He is a candidate whose election wouldn't raise major controversies.

Another standout among Asian hierarchs is Cardinal Charles Maung Bo, Archbishop of Myanmar. A charismatic leader, he has guided the local Church through years of persecution. He is considered more orthodox and conservative, with views shaped by his regional context. He is one of the most influential Asian figures in the Church. His limitation might be his unfamiliarity with Vatican realities, as he spent his entire life in Asia.

South American cardinals could also significantly influence the selection. There are 17 in the college, most of whom were nominated by Pope Francis. Here, Uruguayan Cardinal Daniel Fernando Sturla from Montevideo and Argentine Cardinal Viktor Manuel Fernandez, prefect of the Dicastery for the Doctrine of the Faith, stand out.

Both are relatively young (66 and 63 years old) but have almost nothing in common. Cardinal Sturla leans conservative, shaped under the tutelage of Pope Benedict XVI. He has a clear vision for the Church, emphasizing the poor but cautioning that "the Church cannot just be a charitable organization."

Cardinal Fernandez is his opposite. As one of Pope Francis's closest associates, he is a zealous implementer of the Pope's vision. After Pope Francis became Pope, he quickly promoted Fernandez, sparking wide discussions. His statements provoke controversy in conservative circles, sometimes questioning orthodox Church teachings. His election would mean a radical continuation of Pope Francis's line.

A strong group in the conclave traditionally consists of European cardinals, although their importance has waned in recent years. Among them, a few names stand out. A protege of Pope Francis and his "favorite" is Luxembourgish Cardinal Jean-Claude Hollerich, a Jesuit. He was chosen to lead the synod on synodality. His election would continue Pope Francis's line, though he may not have a great chance. However, he might play an essential role in shaping the voting and guiding potential candidates.

Between the extreme candidates, a cardinal emerges who could reconcile all factions — Hungarian Peter Erdo, Metropolitan of Budapest. Mentioned as a potential Pope in the past, Erdo is considered a conservative but could be accepted by a majority of the College of Cardinals as a compromise candidate. Fluent in Hungarian, Latin, Italian, French, and English, he is well-known among the cardinals, and his election would signify a commitment to Church stability and tranquility.

Another name that appears among potential candidates is Swedish Cardinal Anders Arborelius. Raised as a Lutheran, he was baptized at age 20. He is considered a conservative, adhering to strict Church doctrines. When asked if he was ready to become Pope, he quipped: "It's very unrealistic, but possible."

A somewhat more liberal choice would be French Cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline, Metropolitan of Marseille. Known for his gentleness and excellent connection with the faithful, he strives in his work to seek compromise, which gains him many supporters. However, he might be "unelectable" due to his relatively young age (66).

If the cardinals seek a new Pope who would continue Pope Francis's line, they should focus on the Portuguese from Madeira, Cardinal Jose Tolentino de Mendonca, prefect of the Dicastery for Culture and Communication. He's been mentioned among the favorites for some time now. His election would likely mean a long pontificate, as Mendonca is only 60 years old.

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