NewsPolls show Trump leading Biden in key 2020 states amid voter shift

Polls show Trump leading Biden in key 2020 states amid voter shift

The latest poll from the USA. Donald Trump has a significant advantage.
The latest poll from the USA. Donald Trump has a significant advantage.

12:57 PM EDT, May 13, 2024

Donald Trump significantly leads Joe Biden in five out of six pivotal states where Biden emerged victorious in the 2020 presidential election, as revealed by the latest Sienna College and The New York Times poll. The findings point out a declining support for Biden amongst the youngest voters, Latinos, and African Americans.

The survey illustrates that Trump boasts a substantial lead in Nevada (50-38 percent) and Georgia (49-39 percent). His lead extends to seven percentage points in both Arizona and Michigan (49-42 percent), and in Pennsylvania, it narrows to three percentage points (47-44 percent).
In contrast, the only key state where Biden secures an advantage is in Wisconsin, leading by a slim two percentage points (47-45 percent).

The emergence of independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., projected to secure 10 percent of the vote, does little to sway the overall results, as he equally detracts votes from both Trump and Biden.

Biden's decline among young voters

The New York Times highlights that Biden's diminished standing in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada is primarily due to waning support from the voter demographics that significantly backed him in 2020. This includes the youngest voters (aged 18-29), Latinos, and African Americans. In the case of the first two groups, support for both candidates is now nearly identical, marking a departure from the clear preference for Biden four years ago.

Trump has garnered 20 percent support among African American voters, marking the highest result for a Republican candidate since the 1960s. Moreover, Biden is losing traction with more moderate voters, with 13 percent of those who voted for him in 2020 planning to shift their allegiance due to the administration's policy on the Gaza Strip conflict.

The newspaper underscores the heightened disenchantment among young voters and minorities with the economic climate, along with their desire for change, which they believe Trump is more likely to initiate. A significant portion of the electorate calls for systemic overhaul, with 55 percent advocating for major changes, 27 percent for minor adjustments, and 14 percent for a complete dismantling of the system.

Nonetheless, a silver lining for Biden might be a potentially higher election turnout; he performs better among likely voters than all registered voters. With this consideration, Biden still leads in Michigan but loses narrowly in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Success in these states could potentially secure his electoral victory.

Interestingly, Biden's dismal performance doesn't seem to impede the Democratic candidates' prospects in the Senate races within these states. Democratic contenders are leading, despite the Republican party being favored to clinch a majority in the chamber.
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