Ozone layer healing as global efforts pay off, full recovery by 2035
New research conducted by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, with NASA's support, shows that human-caused damage is gradually being mitigated—the ozone layer is returning to its original state. This demonstrates that global efforts are worthwhile, even if they take years.
We've been hearing about the ozone hole for years, and finally, there's evidence that the international initiatives implemented nearly 40 years ago are gradually reducing it. New calculations indicate that it could disappear completely by 2035 if we maintain current standards and continue to limit CFCs. Ozone is very important to us because it acts like a shield protecting Earth from harmful ultraviolet radiation from the Sun. This radiation is dangerous enough to damage the genetic material of cells, potentially leading to cancerous changes in humans and animals.
The reduction of harmful substances significantly heals the ozone layer
Research conducted by MIT researchers shows that the recovery of ozone is progressing smoothly. The researchers affirm that the "healing" process of the Antarctic ozone layer is a direct result of global efforts to reduce ozone-depleting substances. These findings have just been published in the scientific journal "Nature".
The MIT team had previously observed signs of ozone recovery. However, the new study, for the first time, with substantial statistical confidence, demonstrates that the reduction of ozone-depleting substances, rather than other factors such as weather variability or increased greenhouse gas emissions into the stratosphere, is the primary reason for this regeneration.
Irreversible health effects were discovered back in the 1990s
In Earth's stratosphere, ozone acts like a type of sunscreen, protecting the planet from the Sun's harmful ultraviolet radiation. In 1985, scientists discovered a seasonally occurring "hole" in the ozone layer over Antarctica—the cause was chlorofluorocarbons, or CFCs—chemical compounds that were then used in refrigeration, air conditioning, insulation, and aerosol propellants. When CFCs rise to the stratosphere, they can break down ozone under certain seasonal conditions. This temporary depletion of the ozone layer suddenly allowed UV rays to reach the surface, leading to skin cancer and other adverse health effects.
For the research, they generated "parallel worlds."
In their new study, the MIT team used a quantitative approach and a "fingerprinting" method, borrowed from climate change research, to identify the cause of the Antarctic ozone layer recovery. The researchers began by simulating Earth's atmosphere and generated multiple "parallel worlds" under different initial conditions.
They conducted simulations under conditions assuming no increase in greenhouse gases or ozone-depleting substances. Under these conditions, any changes in ozone were expected to result from the natural variability of the weather. They compared these simulations to see how ozone in the Antarctic stratosphere responded to different initial conditions.
The ozone hole will disappear by 2035
The team found a pattern of ozone recovery specifically linked to the conditions of decreasing ozone-depleting substances. They then sought confirmation in real satellite observations of the ozone hole from 2005 to 2025. By 2018, this pattern was strongest, and the team was 95 percent confident that the recovery of ozone was mainly due to the reduction of ozone-depleting substances.
MIT Professor Susan Solomon predicts that if the trend continues, we may soon reach a time when the ozone layer remains intact and the ozone hole disappears forever. If efforts to limit CFCs continue, this is likely to happen by 2035. Changes can be tracked on NASA's observational center page.
