Nuclear tensions rise after Indian air raids on Pakistan targets

On the night of May 6-7, 2025, the Indian air force conducted strikes on targets in Pakistan. According to Indian authorities, the attacks targeted terrorist infrastructure, striking nine facilities during the raids.

Pakistan confirmed strikes on six targets mainly near the border with Indian-controlled Kashmir. It reported shooting down five Indian aircraft involved in the raids—three Rafales, one MiG-29, and one Su-30. India did not confirm these reports.

Additionally, India used another form of pressure by temporarily halting the flow of water from its territory to Pakistan for a few hours before the attacks.

The conflict between India and Pakistan has persisted for nearly 80 years, beginning with the first war over Kashmir in 1947. It has taken various forms, from diplomatic tensions and isolated incidents, such as shooting down aircraft, to missile and air attacks, and limited ground skirmishes.

The escalation of this conflict is particularly concerning because, despite India's superiority, both nations are regional powers with large armed forces, and both possess nuclear weapons.

India's armed forces, with about 1.1 million soldiers, are the second-largest globally after China's. The military's arsenal includes a mix of Soviet and Russian equipment, such as T-72 and T-90 tanks, indigenous designs like the Arjun tank and Tejas aircraft, and Western equipment, like the Rafale aircraft from France and South Korean K9 howitzers.

A significant asset for India is its navy. The country builds modern destroyers and frigates domestically and has two aircraft carriers, with a third under construction. Most importantly, India constructs Arihant-type submarines with nuclear propulsion, capable of launching ballistic missiles from beneath the sea surface.

Pakistan's army, with about 550,000 soldiers, is smaller than India's, but Islamabad is intensively modernizing its armed forces, facilitated by close cooperation with China.

Chinese arms form part of Pakistan's most advanced equipment, alongside older American F-16s. The inventory includes JF-17 and J10 aircraft, MBT-3000 tanks and their local Haider variant, SH-15 self-propelled howitzers, and HQ-7, HQ-9, and HQ-16 air defense systems.

The most vital component of the Pakistani navy is also Chinese, consisting of eight Zulfiquar and Tughril-class frigates. Despite technical issues with Chinese equipment, Pakistan-China cooperation is thriving.

This collaboration is evident in Islamabad's recent orders for Chinese submarines and additional frigates. In many cases, equipment is partially sourced from China and partially locally produced in Pakistan thanks to technology transfer.

What worries the world most is not the conventional arms of these countries but their nuclear arsenals. Both began their nuclear programs in the 1970s. India conducted its first nuclear test in 1974 and, following a series of tests in 1998, announced the end of further testing. The Indian nuclear arsenal is estimated to include just over 100 warheads.

Pakistan detonated its first nuclear device in 1998 and has not joined the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Since then, it has expanded its arsenal to levels comparable to or slightly exceeding India's.

Both countries possess ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads. Pakistan's Shaheen-III intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) can strike targets up to about 2,800 miles away.

India's strength lies in its Agni missile family. The Agni IV has a range of over 3,100 miles, meaning that all of India and Pakistan are within the reach of at least some nuclear delivery systems possessed by both countries.

Pakistan's nuclear arsenal relies on ballistic and cruise missiles and an air component—nuclear bombs can be deployed by Pakistani Mirage V and F-16 aircraft.

India holds an advantage with its complete nuclear triad. In addition to land-based ballistic and cruise missiles, India has aircraft capable of delivering nuclear bombs (Mirage 2000 and Jaguar), as well as submarines armed with ballistic missiles.

India and Pakistan manage their nuclear arsenals differently. For New Delhi, nuclear weapons serve as a means of retaliation, while for Islamabad, they are seen as essential for survival. Therefore, India, being larger and more powerful, adheres to a retaliatory strike policy, declaring it will not use nuclear weapons first.

In contrast, Pakistan, being smaller and weaker, adopts a different strategy, likely because it cannot match the Indian army in a full-scale conventional conflict. This is why the Pakistani nuclear doctrine reserves the option for the first use of nuclear weapons.