New thesis predicts global population peak by 2060s, then decline

Experts now predict that the world's population will reach about 10 billion as early as the 2060s and then begin to decline. This marks a significant shift from earlier predictions that estimated the population could rise to 12.3 billion.

In wealthier countries such as Japan, where the population is decreasing rapidly (about one person less every 40 seconds), and in Europe, America, and East Asia, where fertility rates have dropped dramatically, we are already seeing this trend. Many middle- and low-income countries are also heading in this direction. The cause is the demographic transition, which includes changes in reproductive behavior due to urbanization, improved status of women, and increased access to education and the labor market. Additionally, the COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the decline in birth rates in many regions worldwide.

A population decline can lead to significant economic challenges, such as fewer available workers and an increase in the number of people requiring social support. Some countries may try to restrict emigration to retain working-age individuals. On the other hand, this issue could prompt increased global migration as people search for better living and working conditions.

Whether a declining population will ease the pressure on the natural environment remains open. On one hand, fewer people might lead to less resource demand and lower carbon dioxide emissions. On the other hand, increased prosperity and consumption in developed countries could result in a higher carbon footprint per person. Thus, the critical question is whether economic growth can be decoupled from its negative environmental impact.

In summary, the future of the global population and its impact on the planet are uncertain. Monitoring the direction of environmental protection efforts and changes in global consumption patterns will be crucial.