NATO faces a 250,000-soldier shortfall in defense strategy

Russian aggression against Ukraine has prompted NATO to reinforce its pledge to defend all its territory by ensuring a sufficiently large armed force. However, achieving this goal is challenging, as Alliance analysis indicates a shortage of at least 49 brigades, equating to a quarter of a million soldiers.

NATO countries need to bolster their military forces, requiring significant financial investments from the Alliance. Expanding the land component by up to 50 percent is crucial to meet the necessary capabilities. These conclusions stem from an unpublished NATO document accessed by Welt.

The two main objectives identified for the new Secretary General of NATO, Dutchman Mark Rutte, starting October 1, 2024, center on Russia. The first is to ensure Ukraine receives the support needed to counter Russian aggression. The second is to strengthen NATO's defenses against Russia.

As "Welt" highlights, the message from the new head of the Alliance is clear: "No excuses." This directive is based on an analysis not yet made public, developed by American General Christopher Cavoli and French Admiral Pierre Vandier, two leading military officials of the Alliance.

A major declaration made in 2023 emphasized that NATO must be "ready, willing, and able" to defend every inch of allied territory. Realizing this promise will require political will and significant financial and organizational efforts.

The "minimum capability requirements" (MCR) sets the standard. In 2021, 82 brigades were deemed sufficient. However, the bar has been raised significantly, with the MCR now at 131 brigades. This means NATO must increase its armed forces by 49 brigades to meet its commitments.

The NATO report states that the average size of a brigade is about 5,000 soldiers, which is near the upper limit (brigades typically consist of 3,000-5,000 soldiers).

This suggests that the 32 current NATO members must collectively expand their armed forces by around 245,000 soldiers. As reported by the Ukrainian Defence Express service, in terms of soldiers in ground forces, this is equivalent to four German armies (approximately 64,000 soldiers per army), two French armies (114,000), or half the U.S. Army (453,000 soldiers in the ground forces).

Aside from expanding its armed forces, NATO's analysis points to air defense as a second critical weakness in the Alliance. The data shows that NATO's potential must grow from the current 293 ground units to a desired 1,467.

This involves weapons of various classes—from close defense systems like the German Skyranger, proven effective in Ukraine, to medium and long-range systems like the American Patriot. NATO also stresses the importance of expanding its helicopter forces.