Latest NBC poll suggests Trump could beat Biden in a hypothetical matchup, but potential conviction could swing the favor
By November 2024, Americans must decide whether Joe Biden will remain in the White House or if Donald Trump will make a comeback. The scrimmage that is the United States election campaign gains momentum with each passing day.
The most recent nationwide NBC News poll reveals former President Donald Trump leading current President Joe Biden by 5 percentage points (47-42 percent) among registered voters in a conjectured general election matchup.
Interestingly, when posed the question once again about their voting choice, if Trump were to be found guilty and convicted of a crime within this year, Biden claims a slight lead over Trump (45-43 percent).
Significant changes have been noted among voters who staunchly supported Biden in 2020, but now lean towards Donald Trump. This shift is noticeable among the youngest voters, Latinos, and independent voters.
US Presidential Election: How Will the Youth Vote?
Examining the voters aged between 18 and 34, both Trump and Biden presently hold 42 percent of the votes. However, if a potential verdict against Donald Trump comes into play, 47 percent of these voters opt for Biden, while only 32 percent continue to support Trump.
The same trend is visible among Latinos, where initially Trump leads , but should he be convicted, he would trail by 10 percent (35-45).
Independent voters have expressed their intention to vote for Donald Trump. Even a guilty verdict passed on the former president wouldn't be enough to deter them — he maintains an 8 percent lead over Biden.
The most recent general election took place on November 3, 2020, with the Electoral College convening on December 14, 2020. During that election, Joe Biden earned 306 electoral votes while Donald Trump secured 232.