Kremlin's new offensive: Gaining ground in Dnipropetrovsk region

According to the Polish Press Agency, Russia is intensifying its military efforts in the Dnipropetrovsk region. The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggests this is an attempt to gain an advantage in talks with Ukraine. ISW experts note that while these actions lack operational significance, they might affect future peace negotiations.

The latest ISW analysis reveals that Russian troops are only about 4 miles from the border of the Donetsk region with Dnipropetrovsk, near the village of Novovasylivka. Furthermore, Russian forces are approximately 5 miles from the border of these regions near the town of Novodarivka.

The Russian forces advancing westward toward the Dnipropetrovsk region, from the area around Pokrovsk—a strategic logistics hub for the Ukrainian army—may be aiming to encircle Ukrainian forces and capture the remainder of the Donetsk region, ISW reports.

By attempting to conquer the southeastern part of the Dnipropetrovsk region, the Kremlin may be planning to claim the right to annex the rest of this region in the future. Vladimir Putin had previously formally incorporated the Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions into Russia, even though they are not entirely controlled by Russian forces.

Russian troops also maintain control over limited areas in the north and northeast of the Kharkiv region and the Kinburn Spit in the Mykolaiv region. The Kremlin might attempt to utilize these military positions for further advances in these areas.

The Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, announced in March 2024 that Russia plans to seize a larger area of Ukraine. A close advisor to Putin, Nikolai Patrushev, stated that by 2025, "Ukraine may cease to exist," as the Kremlin seeks to occupy more Ukrainian territory than is currently controlled by Russian troops.