Kremlin's army may lose 500,000 soldiers by year-end, warns British Ministry of Defense
11:56 AM EST, January 6, 2024
"The average daily number of Russian casualties in Ukraine in 2023 rose to nearly 300," the British Ministry of Defense pointed out in a post published on the X service.
"If these numbers maintain the current level into the next year, Russia will suffer a loss of over half a million soldiers in Ukraine," it added.
On Putin's army plan: Kupyansk targeted by Russians
The American Institute for War Studies estimates that Russian troops may soon intensify attempts to capture Kupyansk in the Kharkiv region of Eastern Ukraine.
American experts suggest that such attempts could transpire within the next few weeks. They also highlight a publication by the British newspaper "Telegraph," which quotes an insider from the Ukrainian army saying that the Russians could start a "land offensive" on January 15th. Yet, the press services of the Ukrainian armed forces and the authorities of the Kharkiv region explained that they have not seen any changes in the composition or concentration of the Russian troops in this region. According to the Institute for War Studies, while Russian forces may increase offensive operations towards Kupyansk, a full-scale offensive is unlikely.
Analysts conclude that the Russians have likely been slowly rebuilding units compromised during the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the fall of 2022 and the unsuccessful Russian attack in the spring of 2023.
The Russian command presumably intends to use the revived forces to escalate limited offensive operations. The main formations operating towards Kupyansk are the 1st Guards Tank Army and the 6th Combined Army, which belong to the Western Military District of Russia.
The ISW infers that Russian troops appear to be in favorable conditions to escalate operations towards Kupyansk, targeting territorial gains in areas of more excellent operational value than other places they are currently trying to seize. The center adds that Ukrainian assessments suggest the Russians aim to conquer Kupyansk and the town of Borova (21.7 miles west of Swatowe) in the winter of 2024.
"Should they successfully capture these cities, it is likely that the Ukrainian forces would be pushed back from the eastern bank of the Oskol River. It could also create favorable conditions for future Russian offensives along the Kupyansk-Swatowe-Kreminna line," evaluates the American think tank.
