Kremlin strategizes image of victory as Ukraine war evolves

A source cited by the newspaper indicated that the Presidential Administration (AP) recognizes the inevitability of the special operation coming to an end and believes preparations for that eventuality are necessary.

According to insiders, the future outcomes of the war are to be framed as a victory for Russians. However, it is expected that such a portrayal won't satisfy "angry patriots" or "liberals."

Therefore, the Kremlin recommends focusing on the "calm majority" who will find contentment in the "denazification" and "demilitarization" of Ukraine as proclaimed by the Russian president, along with the annexation of four Ukrainian regions. According to Kommersant sources, officials are urged to "maintain and expand" this majority.

The Kremlin has also tasked regional authorities with supporting war participants and offering assistance in employment and rehabilitation. Otherwise, they may join protest movements or criminal activities, as discussed at a seminar in "Senezh."

"Senezh" is a training centre in the Moscow region, referred to as the "Senezh Management Workshop." It hosts seminars and workshops for Russian officials, including deputy governors. These meetings aim to enhance management skills and address current political and administrative challenges. This centre is crucial in shaping regional policy and communication strategies in Russia.

One risk identified by Putin's administration is that former soldiers may have difficulty finding the same level of earnings as in the war. Therefore, a "Kommersant" source claims officials are expected to provide support and foster respect for them in society.

Previously, sources close to the Kremlin informed Reuters that Russian President Vladimir Putin had set the framework for an agreement on Ukraine to discuss with the newly elected U.S. president, Donald Trump. According to this information, Putin might agree to withdraw troops from the Kharkiv and Mykolaiv regions but will insist on retaining control over the annexed regions. He will also demand that Ukraine renounce its NATO membership.

According to a Reuters source, Putin could frame such an agreement as a triumph for Russia, emphasizing its role in safeguarding Russian-speaking communities in eastern Ukraine while preserving a land connection to Crimea.

However, it is unclear whether Putin will seek full control over the four Ukrainian regions—Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. The Russian army entirely controls none, and in June of this year, Putin associated the start of peace talks with the withdrawal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from these areas.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky saw Putin's conditions as another request and refused to discuss them. At the end of November, Zelensky proclaimed that Kyiv would agree to end the "hot phase" of the war with Russia if Ukraine is granted NATO membership. However, he emphasized that there would be no concession of the occupied territories: once invited to join the North Atlantic Alliance, Kyiv intends to reclaim them "through diplomatic means."

Meanwhile, Trump has announced that he is ready to end the war between Russia and Ukraine immediately after his inauguration on January 20, 2025. However, his advisors' proposals to end the conflict involve freezing the current front line and halting discussions about Ukraine's NATO membership.