Kremlin scrambles to form new military groups after Kursk operation

Since August 6 — since the start of the "Kursk operation" — Ukrainian forces have occupied about 480 square miles of Russian territory and approximately 100 localities. The Ukrainian army moved in smoothly because the Russians did not consider the possibility of an invasion at all. The spring raids conducted in this area by forces fighting on the side of Ukraine: the Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK), the Siberia Battalion, and the "Free Russia" Legion, did not even serve as a warning signal for the Kremlin.

Currently, one might wonder if these raids were a test to check the Russian defense in the border areas. The information gathered at that time was certainly thoroughly analyzed by Ukrainian staff officers, and appropriate conclusions were drawn. The same cannot be said about the Russians.

Their only reaction was the commencement of the construction of field fortifications. For example, rows of dragon's teeth anti-tank barriers were set up in the Belgorod region, and hedgehogs were placed on roads. And since the teeth were not dug in but placed on the ground, they could not fulfill their tasks.

Only a small section of the border was fortified, leaving part of it undefended, manned by border guard units. Therefore, the Ukrainians entered the Kursk region almost unimpeded, and the first resistance was encountered only near Sudzha.

The defense of the region was led by the Federal Security Service Border Guard Service. Its battalions on the border with Ukraine were equipped with armored personnel carriers and self-propelled howitzers. Such equipment could not and did not stop the attack of Ukrainian tanks and infantry fighting vehicles equipped with guided anti-tank missiles.

Regular units appeared only on August 8, and additionally, these were Kadyrovites, who quickly took positions and withdrew just as quickly. The civilian authorities also had no control over the situation whatsoever. It is no wonder that roads quickly became blocked with fleeing civilians, hindering military logistics.

The Kremlin, which was evidently convinced that this was another raider incursion, reacted only on the second day of the Ukrainian operation. The only measurable result was the issuance of instructions to civilian departments to provide the necessary assistance to the region's residents.

The military was still operating, or rather not operating, on its own. Random units were being pulled in, commanded by border guards trained for police, not military, tasks. Time passed, Ukrainians seized more localities, and the Kremlin did not implement any systematic solutions. These only appeared two weeks after the start of the Ukrainian operation.

On August 20, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced the creation of three new military groups: Belgorod, Bryansk, and Kursk. These newly established units are to protect the regions in which they operate—primarily against aerial attacks. The directive also mentioned protecting the population. Nothing was written about defending the territory of the Russian Federation. Nevertheless, this is a first step towards systematizing and coordinating actions in the areas occupied by Ukraine.

Interestingly, the plans to form military groups existed in the Russian staff as early as May 2024, but they have only now been realized. Until now, independent military groups have operated exclusively in Ukrainian territory. This facilitated command and the administration of civil-military actions in the theater of operations. By creating groups within the Russian Federation, the Kremlin indirectly acknowledges that the situation is difficult, if not dire.

The actions of the new groups will be directed by the Coordinating Council for the Military Security of Border Territories, whose formation was announced by Russian Defense Minister Andrey Belousov. It includes deputy ministers, regional leaders, and representatives of the General Staff, including its head, Army General Valery Gerasimov.

Belousov was appointed head of the Council. His deputy is Deputy Minister of Defense Yunus-Bek Yevkurov, former president of the Republic of Ingushetia. Previously, Yevkurov oversaw the Kremlin's military cooperation with friendly African regimes. He supervised, for example, arms trades and the dispatch of Wagner trainers and mercenaries to Africa.

Andrey Belousov explained in Kommersant that the work of the Coordinating Council should be conducted around the clock, and the proposals received from the regions should be considered within 24 hours. "If the problem cannot be resolved at a lower level, the information is forwarded to me personally, and I make the decision," the minister said.

This could mean that the decision-making chain will lengthen significantly, and the Kremlin will centrally direct actions, as each day only deepens the chaos caused by the "Kursk operation."

Even the Russians themselves do not believe in the rapid stabilization of the situation in the Kursk region. On August 21, the independent portal Meduza reported that according to the Kremlin, the fighting in the region "will last a few months." This already contradicts an order that Vladimir Putin allegedly, according to Ukrainian media, gave to his generals. He ordered them to expel the Ukrainian armed forces by October 1. It is hard to pinpoint how they would accomplish this since no transfers of Russian reserves from the Donbas, where battles are raging in the Pokrovsk region, have been noted.

The fact that the Kremlin still lacks a ready plan is evidenced by further reports from Meduza, which gathered information from people connected with Putin's administration. "To stabilize moods faster, the Kremlin, through propaganda, is preparing Russians to live in a new normality," the portal describes.

The propagandists, though initially shaken, are now getting back into form. The newspaper Izvestia accuses the intelligence services of the USA, Great Britain, and Poland of aiding the enemy's incursion into the country. The publication indicates that Russia's intelligence accuses the intelligence services of the USA, Great Britain, Germany, and Poland of participating in the preparation and execution of the attack on the Kursk region.

Citing Russian intelligence, the newspaper writes that "military advisers from NATO countries helped manage Ukrainian units that invaded Russian territory and used Western weapons and military equipment." Nobody yet mentions the helplessness of the Kremlin and Putin himself. For now.